Population, urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Cheng JING; Hui TAO; Tong JIANG; Yanjun WANG; Jianqing ZHAI; Lige CAO; Buda SU

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1715-x

[1] W Arnell N, B Lloyd-Hughes. The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios. Climatic Change, 122, 127-140(2014).

[2] S Basten, T Sobotka, K Zeman. Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries. Vienna: Vienna Institute of. Demography Working Papers.(2013).

[3] M Bell, E Charles-Edwards, P Ueffing et al. Internal migration and development: Comparing migration intensities around the world. Population, Space and Place, 41, 33-58(2015).

[4] W Cai, S Borlace, M Lengaigne et al. Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nature Climate Change, 4, 111-116(2014).

[5] H Chen, Y Zhang. Sensitivity experiments of impacts of large-scale urbanization in East China on East Asian winter monsoon. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58, 809-815(2012).

[6] F Cogliano J. Climate change and international trade. Eastern Economic Journal, 42, 159-161(2016).

[7] C Cuaresma J. Income projections for climate change research: A framework based on human capital dynamics. Global Environmental Change, 42, 226-236(2017).

[8] R Dellink, J Chateau, E Lanzi et al. Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global Environmental Change, 42, 200-214(2017).

[9] G Donat M, L Lowry A, V Alexander L et al. More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nature Climate Change, 6, 508-513(2016).

[10] B Field C, V Barros, F Stocker T et al. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Tntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(2012).

[11] S Fujimori, M Kainuma, T Masui et al. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation. Energy Policy, 75, 379-391(2014).

[12] A Goujon. Population and Education Prospects in the Arab Region.(2002).

[13] A Goujon, H Alkitkat, W Lutz et al. Population and Human Capital Growth in Egypt: Projections for Governorates to 2051. Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.(2007).

[14] A Goujon, R Fuchs. The Future Fertility of High Fertility Countries: A Model Incorporating Expert Arguments. Laxenburg: International Institute for. Applied Systems Analysis.(2013).

[15] A Goujon, K McNay. Projecting the educational composition of the population of India: Selected state-level perspectives. Applied Population and Policy, 1, 25-35(2003).

[16] A Goujon, C Samir K. Past and Future of Human Capital in Southeast Asia: From 1970 to 2030. Vienna: Vienna Institute of. Demography Working Papers.(2006).

[17] G Hansen, D Stone. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change. Nature Climate Change, 6, 532-537(2015).

[18] J Hawksworth. How big will the major emerging market economies get and how can the OECD compete. Pricewaterhouse Coopers.(2006).

[19] H Hegre, H Buhaug, V Calvin K et al. Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 054002(2016).

[20] . Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1535(2013).

[21] L Jiang, C O’Neill B. Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global Environmental Change, 42, 193-199(2017).

[22] T Jiang, J Wang Y, J Yuan S et al. Projection of population and economy in the Belt and Road countries (2020-2060). Climate Change Research, 14, 155-164(2018).

[23] T Jiang, J Zhao, G Cao L et al. Projection of national and provincial economy under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in China. Climate Change Research, 14, 50-58(2018).

[24] T Jiang, J Zhao, C Jing et al. National and provincial population projected to 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in China. Climate Change Research, 13, 128-137(2017).

[25] R Jones, A Patwardan, S Cohen et al. Foundations for Decision Making, 195-228(2014).

[26] N Kaldor. Capital accumulation and economic growth. In: Lukz, Hague (eds). The Theory of Capital(1961).

[27] S Kc, W Lutz. Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives. Population and Environment, 35, 243-260(2014).

[28] S Kc, W Lutz. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Global Environmental Change, 42, 181-192(2017).

[29] S Kc, M Potancokova, R Bauer et al. Summary of Data, Assumptions and Methods for New Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) Population Projections by Age, Sex and Level of Education for 195 Countries to 2100. Laxenburg: International Institute for. Applied Systems Analysis.(2013).

[30] E Kriegler, J Edmonds, S Hallegatte et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared climate policy assumptions. Climatic Change, 122, 401-414(2014).

[31] J Leggett, J Pepper W, J Swart R. Emissions scenarios for the IPCC: An update. In: IPCC. Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, 69-95(1992).

[32] M Leimbach, E Kriegler, N Roming et al. Future growth patterns of world regions - A GDP scenario approach. Global Environmental Change, 42, 215-225(2017).

[33] W Lutz, W Butz, S Kc et al. Population growth: Peak probability. Science, 346, 561(2014).

[34] W Lutz, A Goujon. The world’s changing human capital stock: Multi-state population projections by educational attainment. Population and Development Review, 27, 323-339(2001).

[35] M Mogollón J, L Lassaletta, W Beusen A H et al. Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 044008(2018).

[36] H Moss R, A Edmonds J, A Hibbard K et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747-756(2010).

[37] N Nakicenovic, P Kolp, K Riahi et al. Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 7, 137-173(2006).

[38] N Nakicenovic, R Swart. Emission Scenarios IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 598(2000).

[39] . China Statistical Yearbook 2010.(2010).

[40] C O’Neill B, E Kriegler, L Ebi K et al. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 42, 169-180(2017).

[41] C O’Neill B, E Kriegler, K Riahi et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change, 122, 387-400(2014).

[42] A Popp, K Calvin, S Fujimori et al. Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change, 42, 331-345(2017).

[43] A Rezai, K Foley D, L Taylor. Global warming and economic externalities. Economic Theory, 49, 329-351(2011).

[44] K Riahi, P van Vuuren D, E Kriegler et al. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153-168(2017).

[45] A Rogers. Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography. New York:. Wiley.(1976).

[46] A Rohde R, R Muller, R Jacobsen et al. A new estimate of the average earth surface land temperature spanning 1753 to 2011. Geoinformatics & Geostatistics: An Overview, 1(2013).

[47] C Rosenzweig, J Elliott, D Deryng et al. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 3268-3273(2014).

[48] J Schewe, J Heinke, D Gerten et al. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 3245-3250(2014).

[49] B Sun, Y Tang Z. The trend of population in urban under the factors of inter povincial migration and rural-urban migration. Northwest Population, 1, 64-72(2011).

[50] E Taylor K, J Stouffer R, A Meehl G. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 485-498(2012).

[51] E Trenberth K, T Fasullo J, G Shepherd T. Attribution of climate extreme events. Nature Climate Change, 5, 725-730(2015).

[52] World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.(2011).

[53] P van Vuuren D, J Edmonds, M Kainuma et al. The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5(2011).

[54] P van Vuuren D, J Kok M T, B Girod et al. Scenarios in global environmental assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use. Global Environmental Change, 22, 884-895(2012).

[55] Z Wang G. Rethinking the problems in the research of China's family planning policy adjustment. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2-15(2015).

[56] J Wang Y, C Jing, G Cao L et al. The population patterns over China in the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming targets. Climate Change Research, 13, 327-336(2017).

[57] L Weber C, P Peters G. Climate change policy and international trade: Policy considerations in the US. Energy Policy, 37, 432-440(2009).

[58] World Development Indicators. Washington: World Bank.(2017).

[59] Y Zeng, T Hesketh. The effects of China's universal two-child policy. The Lancet, 388, 1930-1938(2016).

[60] Y Zeng, Z Wang. A policy analysis on challenges and opportunities of population/household aging in China. Journal of Population Ageing, 7, 255-281(2014).

[61] Y Zhu, Y Lin L, Q Ke W. Trends in internal migration and mobility: International experiences and their implications for China. Population Research, 40, 50-60(2016).