• Journal of Geographical Sciences
  • Vol. 30, Issue 1, 68 (2020)
Cheng JING1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1, Hui TAO1、1、1、1, Tong JIANG1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1、*, Yanjun WANG1、1、1、1, Jianqing ZHAI1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1, Lige CAO1、1、1、1, and Buda SU1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1
Author Affiliations
  • 11State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
  • 12Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing Jiangsu 210044, China
  • 13National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • 14University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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    DOI: 10.1007/s11442-020-1715-x Cite this Article
    Cheng JING, Hui TAO, Tong JIANG, Yanjun WANG, Jianqing ZHAI, Lige CAO, Buda SU. Population, urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 68 Copy Citation Text show less
    Location of the Belt and Road region
    Fig. 1. Location of the Belt and Road region
    Changes in the population, urbanization level and GDP in the Belt and Road region for 1990-2016
    Fig. 2. Changes in the population, urbanization level and GDP in the Belt and Road region for 1990-2016
    Distribution of the population (a), urbanization (b) and economy (c) in the Belt and Road countries in 2016
    Fig. 3. Distribution of the population (a), urbanization (b) and economy (c) in the Belt and Road countries in 2016
    Projections of the population (a), urbanization (b) and economy (c) in the Belt and Road region for 2020-2050
    Fig. 4. Projections of the population (a), urbanization (b) and economy (c) in the Belt and Road region for 2020-2050
    Changes in the population, urbanization and GDP throughout the Belt and Road region in 2050 compared with 2016
    Fig. 5. Changes in the population, urbanization and GDP throughout the Belt and Road region in 2050 compared with 2016
    Comparisons of the annual population (a), urbanization (b) and GDP (c) in the Belt and Road region in 2050 with the 2016 levels
    Fig. 6. Comparisons of the annual population (a), urbanization (b) and GDP (c) in the Belt and Road region in 2050 with the 2016 levels
    SSP1SSP2SSP3SSP4SSP5
    FertilityLowMediumHighLowLow
    MortalityLowMediumHighMediumLow
    MigrationMediumMediumLowMediumHigh
    EducationHigh (FT)Medium (GET)Low (CER)Low (CER)High (FT)
    TFP growthMediumMediumLowMediumHigh
    Table 1.

    Assumptions of the key influencing factors on the population and economy for the SSPs

    Year20102020203020402050
    UrbanLow1.191.241.291.251.21
    Medium1.191.611.611.611.61
    High1.191.561.931.972.01
    RuralLow1.191.351.511.461.42
    Medium1.641.891.891.891.89
    High1.191.611.611.611.61
    TotalLow1.191.281.371.311.25
    Medium1.451.721.711.681.66
    High1.191.611.611.611.61
    Table 2.

    Assumptions of total fertility rate for the urban and rural populations in China

    Countries(Rate of changes)PopulationUrbanizationGDP
    Top threeLast threeTop threeLast threeTop threeLast three
    SSP1Bahrain (108%)Moldova (-40%)Nepal (195%)Israel (1%)TLS (1594%)Azerbaijan (26%)
    Afghanistan (75%)Lebanon (-22%)Cambodia (167%)Kuwait (2%)Syria (1505%)Singapore (62%)
    ARE (72%)Tajikistan (-19)Sri Lanka (160%)Lebanon (5%)Bhutan (949%)Kazakhstan (67%)
    SSP2Bahrain (125%)Moldova (-39%)Nepal (103%)Israel (1%)Syria (1235%)Azerbaijan (7%)
    Afghanistan (117%)Lebanon (-17%)Cambodia (87%)Kuwait (2%)TLS (977%)Myanmar (40%)
    Yemen (105%)Belarus (-14)Tajikistan (82%)Lebanon (5%)Bhutan (845%)Kazakhstan (47%)
    SSP3Afghanistan (164%)Moldova (-24%)Nepal (46%)Thailand (-21%)Syria (1235%)Azerbaijan (-11%)
    Yemen (152%)Hungary (-22%)BIH (41%)Indonesia (-9%)TLS (977%)Myanmar (3%)
    TLS (143%)Poland (-18%)Cambodia (33%)Mongolia (-7%)Bhutan (845%)Romania (18%)
    SSP4Afghanistan (153%)Moldova (-42%)Nepal (195%)Israel (1%)Syria (857%)Myanmar (-28%)
    Yemen (149%)Lebanon (-23%)Cambodia (167%)Kuwait (2%)Bhutan (670%)Azerbaijan (7%)
    Iraq (127%)Belarus (-20%)Sri Lanka (160%)Lebanon (5%)TLS (442%)Romania (47%)
    SSP5Bahrain (144%)Moldova (-50%)Nepal (195%)Israel (1%)Syria (1888%)Azerbaijan (63%)
    Israel (103%)Tajikistan (-38%)Cambodia (167%)Kuwait (2%)TLS (1621%)Singapore (99%)
    ARE (101%)Georgia (-27%)Sri Lanka (160%)Lebanon (5%)Bhutan (1265%)Lithuania (102%)
    Table 3.

    Three countries with the fastest and slowest growth in 2050 with relative to 2016

    Cheng JING, Hui TAO, Tong JIANG, Yanjun WANG, Jianqing ZHAI, Lige CAO, Buda SU. Population, urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 68
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