Scenarios of land cover in Eurasia under climate change

Zemeng FAN; Ruyu BAI; Tianxiang YUE

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1711-1

Journals >Journal of Geographical Sciences >Volume 30 >Issue 1 >Page 3 > Article

Journal of Geographical Sciences
Vol. 30, Issue 1, 3 (2020)

Scenarios of land cover in Eurasia under climate change

Zemeng FAN^{1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,*}, Ruyu BAI^1,1,1,1,1,1, and Tianxiang YUE^{1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1}

Author Affiliations

¹1State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

¹2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China

¹3Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China

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DOI: 10.1007/s11442-020-1711-1 Cite this Article

Zemeng FAN, Ruyu BAI, Tianxiang YUE. Scenarios of land cover in Eurasia under climate change[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 3 Copy Citation Text

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Fig. 1. Location of the weather observation stations in Eurasia

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Fig. 2. The distribution of HLZ types during 1981-2010 on an average (a) and land cover (b) of Eurasia in 2010

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Fig. 3. RCP26 scenario of land cover change in Eurasia

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Fig. 4. RCP45 scenario of land cover change in Eurasia

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Fig. 5. RCP85 scenario of land cover change in Eurasia

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Table 1.

Transition probability matrix from HLZ types in TO on an average to land cover types in 2010

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Table 1.

Transition probability matrix from HLZ types in TO on an average to land cover types in 2010 (Continued)

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Land cover type	2010	2040	2070	2100	Area change	Change rate (%)
Evergreen broadleaf forest	2363080	2482321	2549012	2635963	272882	11.55
Deciduous broadleaf forest	3268045	3256437	3354152	3400582	132537	4.06
Evergreen needleleaf forest	4677409	4537064	4478604	4527778	-149632	-3.20
Deciduous needleleaf forest	4796439	4715819	4564922	4298793	-497646	-10.38
Mixed forest	1576935	1484708	1399023	1376441	-200494	-12.71
Shrub land	4265659	4078250	4023800	3973782	-291876	-6.84
Grasslands	8752493	8785628	8857383	8962695	210202	2.40
Wetlands	907075	966590	969967	892091	-14984	-1.65
Croplands	12226519	12544776	12692297	12748647	522127	4.27
Water bodies	862333	892091	930923	986850	124517	14.44
Snow and Ice	416393	384948	344849	311926	-104468	-25.09
Built-up land	222231	225397	228141	230040	7809	3.51
Barren or sparsely vegetated land	9747152	9727736	9688693	9736178	-10974	-0.11

Table 2.

Area of land cover type based on RCP26 (km²)

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Land cover type	2010	2040	2070	2100	Area change	Change rate (%)
Evergreen broadleaf forest	2363080	2453619	2572016	2685347	322267	13.64
Deciduous broadleaf forest	3268045	3280286	3365759	3487322	219277	6.71
Evergreen needleleaf forest	4677409	4537486	4523135	4777445	100036	2.14
Deciduous needleleaf forest	4796439	4770058	4511738	3635687	-1160752	-24.20
Mixed forest	1576935	1478165	1363145	1405776	-171158	-10.85
Shrub land	4265659	4119615	3995520	4024644	-241014	-5.65
Grasslands	8752493	8774231	8879543	9153058	400565	4.58
Wetlands	907075	970389	954982	725154	-181922	-20.06
Croplands	12226519	12508687	12679001	12772284	545765	4.46
Water bodies	862333	888925	954138	1106302	243969	28.29
Snow and Ice	416393	384526	343583	254732	-161661	-38.82
Built-up land	222231	225608	228563	232150	9919	4.46
Barren or sparsely vegetated land	9747152	9690170	9710642	9821863	74710	0.77

Table 3.

Area of land cover type based on RCP45 (km²)

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Land cover type	2010	2040	2070	2100	Area change	Change rate (%)
Evergreen broadleaf forest	2363080	2451298	2603673	2746340	383259	16.22
Deciduous broadleaf forest	3268045	3294215	3463473	3503994	235949	7.22
Evergreen needleleaf forest	4677409	4522924	4554158	4895208	217799	4.66
Deciduous needleleaf forest	4796439	4783565	4405371	3232589	-1563850	-32.60
Mixed forest	1576935	1427092	1263320	1275772	-301162	-19.10
Shrub land	4265659	4136499	3979058	4133755	-131904	-3.09
Grasslands	8752493	8763679	8958474	9317041	564548	6.45
Wetlands	907075	973343	856002	636725	-270350	-29.80
Croplands	12226519	12488005	12645656	12802252	575733	4.71
Water bodies	862333	897789	1002046	1190721	328387	38.08
Snow and Ice	416393	386425	310237	227296	-189097	-45.41
Built-up land	222231	226874	231306	232995	10763	4.84
Barren or sparsely vegetated land	9747152	9730058	9808989	9887076	139923	1.44

Table 4.

Area of land cover type based on RCP85 (km²)

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Land cover type	From 2011 to 2040		From 2041 to 2070		From 2071 to 2100
Land cover type	Area	Change rate (%)	Area	Change rate (%)	Area	Change rate (%)
Evergreen broadleaf forest	119241	5.05	66690	2.69	86951	3.41
Deciduous broadleaf forest	-11608	-0.36	97714	3.00	46430	1.38
Evergreen needleleaf forest	-140345	-3.00	-58460	-1.29	49174	1.10
Deciduous needleleaf forest	-80620	-1.68	-150898	-3.20	-266129	-5.83
Mixed forest	-92227	-5.85	-85685	-5.77	-22582	-1.61
Shrub land	-187409	-4.39	-54450	-1.34	-50018	-1.24
Grasslands	33134	0.38	71756	0.82	105312	1.19
Wetlands	59515	6.56	3377	0.35	-77876	-8.03
Croplands	318257	2.60	147521	1.18	56349	0.44
Water bodies	29757	3.45	38832	4.35	55927	6.01
Snow and Ice	-31446	-7.55	-40099	-10.42	-32923	-9.55
Built-up land	3166	1.42	2744	1.22	1899	0.83
Barren or sparsely vegetated land	-19416	-0.20	-39043	-0.40	47485	0.49

Table 5.

Scenario of land cover change based on RCP26 (km²)

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Land cover type	From 2011 to 2040		From 2041 to 2070		From 2071 to 2100
Land cover type	Area	Change rate (%)	Area	Change rate (%)	Area	Change rate (%)
Evergreen broadleaf forest	90539	3.83	118397	4.83	113332	4.41
Deciduous broadleaf forest	12241	0.37	85474	2.61	121562	3.61
Evergreen needleleaf forest	-139923	-2.99	-14351	-0.32	254310	5.62
Deciduous needleleaf forest	-26381	-0.55	-258320	-5.42	-876051	-19.42
Mixed forest	-98769	-6.26	-115020	-7.78	42631	3.13
Shrub land	-146044	-3.42	-124095	-3.01	29124	0.73
Grasslands	21738	0.25	105312	1.20	273515	3.08
Wetlands	63314	6.98	-15406	-1.59	-229829	-24.07
Croplands	282168	2.31	170314	1.36	93282	0.74
Water bodies	26592	3.08	65213	7.34	152164	15.95
Snow and Ice	-31868	-7.65	-40943	-10.65	-88850	-25.86
Built-up land	3377	1.52	2955	1.31	3588	1.57
Barren or sparsely vegetated land	-56982	-0.58	20471	0.21	111221	1.15

Table 6.

Scenario of land cover change based on RCP45 (km²)

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Land cover type	From 2011 to 2040		From 2041 to 2070		From 2071 to 2100
Land cover type	Area	Change rate (%)	Area	Change rate (%)	Area	Change rate (%)
Evergreen broadleaf forest	88217	3.73	152375	6.22	142667	5.48
Deciduous broadleaf forest	26170	0.80	169259	5.14	40521	1.17
Evergreen needleleaf forest	-154486	-3.30	31235	0.69	341050	7.49
Deciduous needleleaf forest	-12874	-0.27	-378194	-7.91	-1172782	-26.62
Mixed forest	-149843	-9.50	-163772	-11.48	12452	0.99
Shrub land	-129160	-3.03	-157440	-3.81	154697	3.89
Grasslands	11185	0.13	194795	2.22	358567	4.00
Wetlands	66268	7.31	-117341	-12.06	-219277	-25.62
Croplands	261486	2.14	157651	1.26	156596	1.24
Water bodies	35456	4.11	104257	11.61	188675	18.83
Snow and Ice	-29969	-7.20	-76188	-19.72	-82941	-26.73
Built-up land	4643	2.09	4432	1.95	1688	0.73
Barren or sparsely vegetated land	-17095	-0.18	78931	0.81	78087	0.80