• Journal of Geographical Sciences
  • Vol. 30, Issue 1, 3 (2020)
Zemeng FAN1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1、*, Ruyu BAI1、1、1、1、1、1, and Tianxiang YUE1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1、1
Author Affiliations
  • 11State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 12University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
  • 13Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
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    DOI: 10.1007/s11442-020-1711-1 Cite this Article
    Zemeng FAN, Ruyu BAI, Tianxiang YUE. Scenarios of land cover in Eurasia under climate change[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 3 Copy Citation Text show less
    Location of the weather observation stations in Eurasia
    Fig. 1. Location of the weather observation stations in Eurasia
    The distribution of HLZ types during 1981-2010 on an average (a) and land cover (b) of Eurasia in 2010
    Fig. 2. The distribution of HLZ types during 1981-2010 on an average (a) and land cover (b) of Eurasia in 2010
    RCP26 scenario of land cover change in Eurasia
    Fig. 3. RCP26 scenario of land cover change in Eurasia
    RCP45 scenario of land cover change in Eurasia
    Fig. 4. RCP45 scenario of land cover change in Eurasia
    RCP85 scenario of land cover change in Eurasia
    Fig. 5. RCP85 scenario of land cover change in Eurasia
    Table 1.

    Transition probability matrix from HLZ types in TO on an average to land cover types in 2010

    Table 1.

    Transition probability matrix from HLZ types in TO on an average to land cover types in 2010 (Continued)

    Land cover type2010204020702100Area changeChange rate (%)
    Evergreen broadleaf forest236308024823212549012263596327288211.55
    Deciduous broadleaf forest32680453256437335415234005821325374.06
    Evergreen needleleaf forest4677409453706444786044527778-149632-3.20
    Deciduous needleleaf forest4796439471581945649224298793-497646-10.38
    Mixed forest1576935148470813990231376441-200494-12.71
    Shrub land4265659407825040238003973782-291876-6.84
    Grasslands87524938785628885738389626952102022.40
    Wetlands907075966590969967892091-14984-1.65
    Croplands122265191254477612692297127486475221274.27
    Water bodies86233389209193092398685012451714.44
    Snow and Ice416393384948344849311926-104468-25.09
    Built-up land22223122539722814123004078093.51
    Barren or sparsely vegetated land9747152972773696886939736178-10974-0.11
    Table 2.

    Area of land cover type based on RCP26 (km2)

    Land cover type2010204020702100Area changeChange rate (%)
    Evergreen broadleaf forest236308024536192572016268534732226713.64
    Deciduous broadleaf forest32680453280286336575934873222192776.71
    Evergreen needleleaf forest46774094537486452313547774451000362.14
    Deciduous needleleaf forest4796439477005845117383635687-1160752-24.20
    Mixed forest1576935147816513631451405776-171158-10.85
    Shrub land4265659411961539955204024644-241014-5.65
    Grasslands87524938774231887954391530584005654.58
    Wetlands907075970389954982725154-181922-20.06
    Croplands122265191250868712679001127722845457654.46
    Water bodies862333888925954138110630224396928.29
    Snow and Ice416393384526343583254732-161661-38.82
    Built-up land22223122560822856323215099194.46
    Barren or sparsely vegetated land9747152969017097106429821863747100.77
    Table 3.

    Area of land cover type based on RCP45 (km2)

    Land cover type2010204020702100Area changeChange rate (%)
    Evergreen broadleaf forest236308024512982603673274634038325916.22
    Deciduous broadleaf forest32680453294215346347335039942359497.22
    Evergreen needleleaf forest46774094522924455415848952082177994.66
    Deciduous needleleaf forest4796439478356544053713232589-1563850-32.60
    Mixed forest1576935142709212633201275772-301162-19.10
    Shrub land4265659413649939790584133755-131904-3.09
    Grasslands87524938763679895847493170415645486.45
    Wetlands907075973343856002636725-270350-29.80
    Croplands122265191248800512645656128022525757334.71
    Water bodies8623338977891002046119072132838738.08
    Snow and Ice416393386425310237227296-189097-45.41
    Built-up land222231226874231306232995107634.84
    Barren or sparsely vegetated land97471529730058980898998870761399231.44
    Table 4.

    Area of land cover type based on RCP85 (km2)

    Land cover typeFrom 2011 to 2040From 2041 to 2070From 2071 to 2100
    AreaChange rate (%)AreaChange rate (%)AreaChange rate (%)
    Evergreen broadleaf forest1192415.05666902.69869513.41
    Deciduous broadleaf forest-11608-0.36977143.00464301.38
    Evergreen needleleaf forest-140345-3.00-58460-1.29491741.10
    Deciduous needleleaf forest-80620-1.68-150898-3.20-266129-5.83
    Mixed forest-92227-5.85-85685-5.77-22582-1.61
    Shrub land-187409-4.39-54450-1.34-50018-1.24
    Grasslands331340.38717560.821053121.19
    Wetlands595156.5633770.35-77876-8.03
    Croplands3182572.601475211.18563490.44
    Water bodies297573.45388324.35559276.01
    Snow and Ice-31446-7.55-40099-10.42-32923-9.55
    Built-up land31661.4227441.2218990.83
    Barren or sparsely vegetated land-19416-0.20-39043-0.40474850.49
    Table 5.

    Scenario of land cover change based on RCP26 (km2)

    Land cover typeFrom 2011 to 2040From 2041 to 2070From 2071 to 2100
    AreaChange rate (%)AreaChange rate (%)AreaChange rate (%)
    Evergreen broadleaf forest905393.831183974.831133324.41
    Deciduous broadleaf forest122410.37854742.611215623.61
    Evergreen needleleaf forest-139923-2.99-14351-0.322543105.62
    Deciduous needleleaf forest-26381-0.55-258320-5.42-876051-19.42
    Mixed forest-98769-6.26-115020-7.78426313.13
    Shrub land-146044-3.42-124095-3.01291240.73
    Grasslands217380.251053121.202735153.08
    Wetlands633146.98-15406-1.59-229829-24.07
    Croplands2821682.311703141.36932820.74
    Water bodies265923.08652137.3415216415.95
    Snow and Ice-31868-7.65-40943-10.65-88850-25.86
    Built-up land33771.5229551.3135881.57
    Barren or sparsely vegetated land-56982-0.58204710.211112211.15
    Table 6.

    Scenario of land cover change based on RCP45 (km2)

    Land cover typeFrom 2011 to 2040From 2041 to 2070From 2071 to 2100
    AreaChange rate (%)AreaChange rate (%)AreaChange rate (%)
    Evergreen broadleaf forest882173.731523756.221426675.48
    Deciduous broadleaf forest261700.801692595.14405211.17
    Evergreen needleleaf forest-154486-3.30312350.693410507.49
    Deciduous needleleaf forest-12874-0.27-378194-7.91-1172782-26.62
    Mixed forest-149843-9.50-163772-11.48124520.99
    Shrub land-129160-3.03-157440-3.811546973.89
    Grasslands111850.131947952.223585674.00
    Wetlands662687.31-117341-12.06-219277-25.62
    Croplands2614862.141576511.261565961.24
    Water bodies354564.1110425711.6118867518.83
    Snow and Ice-29969-7.20-76188-19.72-82941-26.73
    Built-up land46432.0944321.9516880.73
    Barren or sparsely vegetated land-17095-0.18789310.81780870.80
    Table 7.

    Scenario of land cover change based on RCP85 (km2)

    Zemeng FAN, Ruyu BAI, Tianxiang YUE. Scenarios of land cover in Eurasia under climate change[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 3
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