• Journal of Geographical Sciences
  • Vol. 30, Issue 5, 843 (2020)
Xiaolong SONG1,2, Deyu ZHONG1,*, and Guangqian WANG1
Author Affiliations
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
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    DOI: 10.1007/s11442-020-1758-z Cite this Article
    Xiaolong SONG, Deyu ZHONG, Guangqian WANG. Simulation on the stochastic evolution of hydraulic geometry relationships with the stochastic changing bankfull discharges in the Lower Yellow River[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(5): 843 Copy Citation Text show less

    Abstract

    Extreme weather is an important noise factor in affecting dynamic access to river morphology information. The response characteristics of river channel on climate disturbances draw us to develop a method to investigate the dynamic evolution of bankfull channel geometries (including the hydraulic geometry variables and bankfull discharges) with stochastic differential equations in this study. Three different forms of random inputs, including single Gaussian white noise and compound Gaussian/Fractional white noise plus Poisson noise, are explored respectively on the basis of the classical deterministic models. The model parameters are consistently estimated by applying a composite nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. Results of the model application in the Lower Yellow River reveal the potential responses of bankfull channel geometries to climate disturbances in a probabilistic way, and, the calculated average trends mainly run to synchronize with the measured values. Comparisons among the three models confirm the advantage of Fractional jump-diffusion model, and through further discussion, stream power based on such a model is concluded as a better systematic measure of river dynamics. The proposed method helps to offer an effective tool for analyzing fluvial relationships and improves the ability of crisis management of river system under varying environment conditions.
    $\frac{d{{Q}_{t}}}{dt}=\beta ({{Q}_{e}}-{{Q}_{t}})$ (1)

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    ${{Q}_{e}}=K\xi _{f}^{b}Q_{f}^{c}=K{{\left( \frac{{{C}_{tf}}}{{{Q}_{tf}}} \right)}^{b}}Q_{f}^{c}$ (2)

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    ${{S}_{t}}={{\alpha }_{S}}Q_{t}^{{{m}_{S}}}$ (3a)

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    ${{B}_{t}}={{\alpha }_{B}}Q_{t}^{{{m}_{B}}}$ (3b)

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    ${{D}_{t}}={{\alpha }_{D}}Q_{t}^{{{m}_{D}}}$ (3c)

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    ${{U}_{t}}={{\alpha }_{U}}Q_{t}^{{{m}_{U}}}$ (3d)

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    ${{X}_{t}}\text{=}\alpha Q_{t}^{m}$ (4)

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    $\frac{d{{X}_{t}}}{dt}=\alpha mQ_{t}^{m-1}\frac{d{{Q}_{t}}}{dt}=\left( m\frac{1}{{{Q}_{t}}}\frac{d{{Q}_{t}}}{dt} \right){{X}_{t}}$ (5)

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    $d{{Q}_{t}}=\beta ({{Q}_{e}}-{{Q}_{t}})dt$ (6a)

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    $d{{X}_{t}}=\left( m\frac{1}{{{Q}_{t}}}\frac{d{{Q}_{t}}}{dt} \right){{X}_{t}}dt=m\beta \left( \frac{{{Q}_{e}}}{{{Q}_{t}}}-1 \right){{X}_{t}}dt$ (6b)

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    $dQ_{t}^{*}=\beta ({{Q}_{e}}-Q_{t}^{*})dt+\zeta _{t}^{\left[ 1 \right]}$ (7a)

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    $dX_{t}^{*}=m\beta \left( \frac{{{Q}_{e}}}{\overline{{{Q}_{t}}}}-1 \right)X_{t}^{*}dt+\zeta _{t}^{\left[ 2 \right]} $ (7b)

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    $\left\{ dQt=β(QeQt)dt+σ1(Qt)γdWt[1]Q{t=0}=Q0 \right. $ (8a)

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    $\left\{ dXt=mβ(QeQt1)Xtdt+σ2XtdWt[2]X{t=0}=X0 \right. $ (8b)

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    $Qti+1=exp[β(ti+1ti)]Qti+Qe{1exp[β(ti+1ti)]}+σ1(Qti)γ12β{1exp[2β(ti+1ti)]}Zi+1$ (9a)

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    $X_{{{t}_{i+1}}}^{*}\text{=}m\beta \left( \frac{{{Q}_{e}}}{\overline{{{Q}_{t}}}}-1 \right)X_{{{t}_{i}}}^{*}({{t}_{i+1}}-{{t}_{i}})+{{\sigma }_{2}}X_{{{t}_{i}}}^{*}\sqrt{({{t}_{i+1}}-{{t}_{i}})}{{Z}_{i+1}}$ (9b)

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    $\left\{ dQt=β(QeQt)dt+σ1(Qt)γdWt[1]+Qtj=u,d(VN1j(λ1jt)j1)dN1j(λ1jt)Q{t=0}=Q0 \right. $ (10a)

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    $\left\{ dXt=mβ(QeQt1)Xtdt+σ2XtdWt[2]+Xtj=u,d(VN2j(λ2jt)j1)dN2j(λ2jt)X{t=0}=X0 \right. $ (10b)

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    ${{f}_{Y}}(y)=p{{\eta }_{u}}{{e}^{-{{\eta }_{u}}y}}{{\mathbf{I}}_{\left\{ y\ge 0 \right\}}}+q{{\eta }_{d}}{{e}^{{{\eta }_{d}}y}}{{\mathbf{I}}_{\left\{ y<0 \right\}}}$ (11)

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    $\left\{ Qt=exp[β(tτi)]Qτi+Qe{1exp[β(tτi)]}+σ1(Qτi)γ12β{1exp[2β(tτi)]}Z(tτi)Qτi+1=exp[β(τi+1t)]Qti+Qe{1exp[β(τi+1t)]}+σ1(Qt)γ12β{1exp[2β(τi+1t)]}Z(τi+1t)j=u, dVj(N1j(λ1jt)) \right. $ (12a)

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    ${Xt=mβ(QeQt1)Xτi(tτi)+σ2Xτi(tτi)Z(tτi)Xτi+1=(mβ(QeQt1)Xt(τi+1t)+σ2Xt(τi+1t)Z(τi+1t))j=u,dVj(N2j(λ2jt))$ (12b)

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    $\left\{ dQt=β(QeQt)dt+σ1(Qt)γdWtH[1]         +Qtj=u,d(VN1j(λ1jt)j1)dN1j(λ1jt)Q{t=0}=Q0 \right. $ (13a)

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    $\left\{ dXt=mβ(QeQt1)Xtdt+σ2XtdWtH[2]         +Xtj=u,d(VN2j(λ2jt)j1)dN2j(λ2jt)X{t=0}=X0 \right. $ (13b)

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    $\left\{ E(Wt+ΔtH[1]WtH[1])=12((t+Δt)2H[1]+t2H[1]|Δt|2H[1])E(Wt+ΔtH[2]WtH[2])=12((t+Δt)2H[2]+t2H[2]|Δt|2H[2]) \right.$ (14)

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    $\left\{ Qτi+1=β(QeQτi)(τi+1τi)+σ1(Qτi)γ(Wτi+1H[1]WτiH[1])Qτi+1=Qτi+1j=u,dVj(N1j(λ1jt)) \right. $ (15a)

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    $\left\{ Xτi+1=Xτiexp{[mβ(QeQt1)(τi+1τi)12σ22(Xτi)2(τi+1τi)2H[2]]+σ2Xτi(Wτi+1H[2]WτiH[2])}Xτi+1=Xτi+1j=u,dVj(N2(λ2jt)) \right. $ (15b)

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    $\Delta W_{t}^{H}=W_{t+\Delta t}^{H}-W_{t}^{H},\ t\ge 0$ (16)

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    $L(\theta )=\prod\limits_{i=1}^{N}{{{P}_{\theta }}}({{t}_{i}},\ {{x}_{i}};\ ({{t}_{i-1}},\ {{x}_{i-1}}),\ \theta )$ (17)

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    ${{P}_{\theta }}({{t}_{i}},{{x}_{i}};\ ({{t}_{i-1}},{{x}_{i-1}}),\theta )\text{=}\frac{1}{R{{h}_{pi}}}\sum\limits_{r=1}^{R}{K\left( \frac{{{x}_{i}}-X_{{{t}_{i}}}^{r}}{{{h}_{pi}}} \right)}$ (18)

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    $K(u)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi }}\exp \left( -\frac{{{u}^{2}}}{2} \right)$ (19)

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    ${{h}_{pi}}\text{=}{{(4/3)}^{1/5}}{{s}_{i}}{{R}^{-1/5}}$ (20)

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    ${{P}_{\theta }}({{t}_{i}},{{x}_{i}};\ ({{t}_{i-1}},{{x}_{i-1}}),\theta )\text{=}\frac{1}{R}\sum\limits_{r=1}^{R}{f(l_{i}^{r})}$ (21)

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    $f(l)=mu=0nd=0P(nd,λd)P(mu,λu)fnd,mu(l)=e(λd+λu)f0,0(l)+eλund=1P(nd,λd)f0,nd(l)+eλdmu=1P(mu,λu)fmu,0(l)+mu=1nd=1P(nd,λd) P(mu,λu) fnd,mu(l)$ (22)

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    $\left\{ Xτi+1=Xτiexp{[mβ(QeQt1)(τi+1τi)12σ22(Xτi)2(τi+1τi)2H[2]]+σ2Xτi(Wτi+1H[2]WτiH[2])}Xτi+1=Xτi+1j=u,dVj(N2(λ2jt)) \right.$ (23)

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    ${{Z}_{w}}=\frac{{{\left( \frac{{{\gamma }_{s}}-\gamma }{\gamma }{{d}_{50}}D \right)}^{{1}/{3}\;}}}{S{{B}^{{2}/{3}\;}}}$ (24a)

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    $\zeta =\frac{\sqrt{B}}{D}$ (24b)

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    $\Omega \text{=}\gamma BDUS$ (24c)

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    Xiaolong SONG, Deyu ZHONG, Guangqian WANG. Simulation on the stochastic evolution of hydraulic geometry relationships with the stochastic changing bankfull discharges in the Lower Yellow River[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(5): 843
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