Qihui CHEN, Hua CHEN, Jun ZHANG, Yukun HOU, Mingxi SHEN, Jie CHEN, Chongyu XU. Impacts of climate change and LULC change on runoff in the Jinsha River Basin[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 85
- Journal of Geographical Sciences
- Vol. 30, Issue 1, 85 (2020)
Fig. 1. Map of the Jinsha River Basin showing the location of weather stations, hydrological stations, reaches, sub-regions, and DEM
Fig. 2. The changes in extreme precipitation frequency N and flood season precipitation ratio R during 1960-2016(Note: In this research the daily precipitation greater than 50 mm is defined as an extreme precipitation event, and the flood season is set to be June to September.)
Fig. 3. Changes of observed annual average runoff and the trend analysis results at Pingshan hydrological station from 1960 to 2016
Fig. 4. Annual average land use distribution in various regions of the Jinsha River Basin during 1980-2015
Fig. 5. Runoff simulation effects of Pingshan hydrological station in the verification period (2000-2016)
Fig. 6. Simulation results of the 16 different climate and land use scenarios in the outlets of various regions in the Jinsha River Basin
Fig. 7. Selection procedures of typical GCMs under RCP4.5 emission scenario
Fig. 8. The predicted change rates of annual average precipitation compared with the historical period (a) and the Mann-Kendall test results of the annual average precipitation (b) predicted by the 7 typical GCMs in various regions of the Jinsha River Basin
Fig. 9. Change rates (the predicted averaged values compared with that of historical period) and the Mann-Kendall test results of annual extreme precipitation frequency N in 2017-2050
Fig. 10. The predicted change values and the Mann-Kendall test results of annual average temperature (T max and T min) in 2017-2050 in the Jinsha River Basin under different representative climate and emission scenarios
Fig. 11. Change rates of annual average runoff (2017-2050) compared with the historical period (1960-2016) (a) and the Mann-Kendall test results of annual average runoff in 2017-2050 (b) predicted by the 7 typical GCMs in various regions of the Jinsha River Basin
Fig. 12. Statistical results of predicted flood season discharge ratio f at Pingshan hydrological station, including Mann-Kendall test Z statistics and the change rates of f compared with the historical period
Fig. 13. Changes of predicted annual average precipitation, temperature and runoff compared with the historical period (1960-2016) in the whole Jinsha River Basin
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Table 1.
1 Variation coefficient (Cv) of extreme precipitation frequency N under different typical climate and emission scenarios during 2017-2050, together with that of historical period (1960-2016)
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Table 1.
Description of research data used in this research
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Table 1.
0 Typical GCMs selected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, the outputs of each typical GCM respectively representing the typical climate scenarios of cold-dry, cold-wet, warm-dry and warm-wet in 2017-2050
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Table 2.
Research periods and the corresponding climate and land use data
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Table 3.
Sixteen simulation scenarios combining historical measured climate and land use data in different periods
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Table 4.
Annual average precipitation in different periods calculated by Thiessen polygon method and the trend analysis results of historical precipitation (1960-2016) in various regions of the Jinsha River Basin
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Table 5.
Annual average maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) in different periods and the trend analysis results (Z values) in various regions of the Jinsha River Basin
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Table 6.
Mann-Kendall test results of historical observed annual average runoff (1960-2016) in the seven hydrological stations in the Jinsha River Basin
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Table 7.
Statistical results of three characteristic values of runoff (Runoff coefficient r, Extreme flood frequency D and flood season discharge ratio f) at Pingshan hydrological station during the period of 1960-2016
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Table 8.
Annual mean distribution and the change rates of various land use in adjacent periods during the past 35 years (1980-2015) in the Jinsha River Basin
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Table 9.
Calibration and verification results in the seven hydrological stations in the Jinsha River Basin in SWAT model, with the evaluation indicators being Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (NS) and the Percent Bias (PBIAS)
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