• Journal of Geographical Sciences
  • Vol. 30, Issue 1, 164 (2020)
Wulong BA1、1、1、1、1、1, Pengfei DU1、1、1、1、1、1、*, Tie LIU1、1、1, Anming BAO1、1、1, Xi CHEN1、1、1, Jiao LIU1、1、1, and Chengxin QIN1、1、1
Author Affiliations
  • 11State Key Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • 12State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
  • 13School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xihua University, Chengdu 610039, China
  • show less
    DOI: 10.1007/s11442-020-1721-z Cite this Article
    Wulong BA, Pengfei DU, Tie LIU, Anming BAO, Xi CHEN, Jiao LIU, Chengxin QIN. Impacts of climate change and agricultural activities on water quality in the Lower Kaidu River Basin, China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 164 Copy Citation Text show less
    Locations of the Kaidu River Basin (a) and irrigation area of the lower reaches of the Kaidu River Basin (b)
    Fig. 1. Locations of the Kaidu River Basin (a) and irrigation area of the lower reaches of the Kaidu River Basin (b)
    Calibration and validation of monthly streamflow at the Yanqi hydrological station (2012-2014)
    Fig. 2. Calibration and validation of monthly streamflow at the Yanqi hydrological station (2012-2014)
    Simulated and observed values of streamflow in the calibration (a) and validation periods (b) (2012-2014)
    Fig. 3. Simulated and observed values of streamflow in the calibration (a) and validation periods (b) (2012-2014)
    Simulated and observed values of TN and TP in the calibration (a) and validation periods (b) (2012-2014)
    Fig. 4. Simulated and observed values of TN and TP in the calibration (a) and validation periods (b) (2012-2014)
    Distributions of annual average total nitrogen (TN) (a) and total phosphorus (TP) (b) (2010-2014)
    Fig. 5. Distributions of annual average total nitrogen (TN) (a) and total phosphorus (TP) (b) (2010-2014)
    Drainage map of Kaidu River irrigation area
    Fig. 6. Drainage map of Kaidu River irrigation area
    Climate scenariosTemperature change (℃)Precipitation change (%)Streamflow change (%)
    A+0.5-10-10
    B+0.7+10+10
    C+1.3+20-10
    D+1.9+30-20
    Management scenariosMeasures
    EAgricultural irrigation efficiency increased from 58 % to 75%
    FAmount of fertilizer application reduced by 20%
    Table 1.

    Climate change (2040-2044) and agricultural management measure scenarios used in this study

    ParameterDefinitionRangesFitted value
    LAT_TTIMELateral flow travel time0.00-180.0062.00
    NPERCONitrogen percolation coefficient0.00-1.000.21
    ALPHA_BFBaseflow alpha factor0.00-1.000.25
    GW_REVAPGroundwater evaporation coefficient0.02-0.200.02
    GW_DELAYGroundwater delay0.00-500.0014.00
    ESCOSoil evaporation compensation factor0.00-1.000.19
    BIOMIXBiological mixing efficiency0.00-1.000.26
    USLE_PUSLE equation support practice0.00-1.000.26
    BC1Rate constant for biological oxidation of NH30.10-1.000.55
    BC2Rate constant for biological oxidation NO2 to NO30.20-2.001.10
    Table 2.

    Parameters used for calibration of the SWAT model (2012-2013)

    VariablePeriodR2NSEPBIAS (%)
    StreamflowCalibration (2012/01-2013/12)0.840.80-28.57
    Validation (2014/01-2014/12)0.860.837.46
    TN (t)Calibration (2012/01-2013/12)0.850.79-27.32
    Validation (2014/01-2014/12)0.860.8210.68
    TP (t)Calibration (2012/01-2013/12)0.790.75-35.34
    Validation (2014/01-2014/12)0.810.7312.35
    Table 3.

    Calibration and validation results of model parameters

    Sub-basin IDReceiving waterDrainage canalTN (t)TP (t)Discharge (104 m3/s)
    24BigLakeDistrictKaidu River2345.369.50225896.46
    16Halayin, Dongdahan4.160.24723.98
    19Benbutu, 25th Regiment9.520.601539.51
    22Bohu Town, Wulan Town10.290.641485.38
    7Bortu, 26th Regiment West6.260.661545.33
    2YellowWaterDistrictHuangshui River499.582.7012633.36
    822nd Regiment North and South36.691.212624.37
    13Shengli, Beigan26.850.992331.01
    15Dongfeng24.110.811685.94
    36th and 4th Companies of the 24th Regiment16.60.01101.94
    6Qingshui River West and East22.641.851516.93
    27SmallLakeDistrictTuanjie61.523.2810091.55
    29Jiefang, 40 Lichengzi22.581.032461.36
    3127th Regiment, Yongning Town23.030.962091.49
    33Yongning Town East, Chaganur9.910.511268.55
    Total3119.1024.99267997.16
    Table 4.

    Average annual non-point source (NPS) pollutant emissions and streamflow discharge for each drainage canal (2010-2014)

    ScenariosWater sourcePrecipitation (mm)Discharge (m3/s)TN (t)TP (t)
    Reference periodDrainage79.514.21×108773.7315.47
    River246.472.26×1092345.369.50
    Scenario ADrainage71.564.03×108704.3913.60
    River221.821.93×1092233.169.12
    Scenario BDrainage87.464.37×108845.3321.88
    River271.122.58×1092485.9715.21
    Scenario CDrainage95.414.09×108847.7020.98
    River295.761.94×1092331.3213.70
    Scenario DDrainage103.363.84×108854.9820.20
    River320.411.61×1092222.4512.87
    Scenario EDrainage79.514.41×108773.7315.47
    River246.472.26×1092345.369.50
    Scenario FDrainage79.514.21×108661.5612.99
    River246.472.26×1092312.598.93
    Table 5.

    Changes of NPS pollution in the Kaidu River and drainage canals under different scenarios

    Wulong BA, Pengfei DU, Tie LIU, Anming BAO, Xi CHEN, Jiao LIU, Chengxin QIN. Impacts of climate change and agricultural activities on water quality in the Lower Kaidu River Basin, China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(1): 164
    Download Citation