Fig. 1. Location of the Qihe catchment in China and its digital elevation model (DEM)
Fig. 2. Land use map of 2005 (a) and 2015 (b) as well as simulated map of 2015 (c) in the Qihe catchment, China
Fig. 3. The simulated results of land use in 2025 under different scenarios in the Qihe catchment, China
Fig. 4. Scenario comparison of land use changes in 2015-2025 in the Qihe catchment, China
Fig. 5. Carbon storage, carbon density and the change of carbon density along with the increase of altitude in 2005, 2015 and different scenarios of 2025 in the Qihe catchment, China
Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of carbon density and carbon density changes in 2005, 2015 and different scenarios of 2025 in the Qihe catchment, China
Type | Cultivated land | Woodland | Grassland | Water body | Construction land | Unused land |
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Q1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | Q2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | Q3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
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Table 1. The ELAS of all land use types under different scenarios
Type | Ci-above | Ci-below | Ci-soil |
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Cultivated land | 4.02 | 0.76 | 105.14 | Woodland | 55.74 | 12.14 | 174.97 | Grassland | 0.39 | 2.46 | 96.89 | Water body | 0.04 | 0 | 64.03 | Construction land | 0.01 | 0 | 57.63 | Unused land | 0.01 | 0 | 58.89 |
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Table 2. Carbon density of different land use types in the Qihe catchment, China (t/ha)
Encode | Cultivated land | Woodland | Grassland | Water body | Construction land | Unused land |
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Beta coefficient | Exp(B) | Beta coefficient | Exp(B) | Beta coefficient | Exp(B) | Beta coefficient | Exp(B) | Beta coefficient | Exp(B) | Beta coefficient | Exp(B) |
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Constant | 2.1439 | 8.5329 | -4.8852 | 0.0076 | -1.9361 | 0.1443 | -3.7741 | 0.0230 | 0.2381 | 1.2688 | -13.1827 | 0 | sc1gr0 | 0.0007 | 1.0007 | 0.0014 | 1.0014 | -0.0014 | 0.9986 | -0.0023 | 0.9977 | - | - | 0.0017 | 1.0017 | sc1gr1 | -0.1333 | 0.8752 | 0.0980 | 1.1029 | 0.0388 | 1.0395 | -0.0896 | 0.9143 | -0.0113 | 0.9888 | 0.0738 | 1.0766 | sc1gr2 | 0.0004 | 1.0004 | -0.0002 | 0.9998 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | sc1gr3 | -0.0150 | 0.985 | 0.0105 | 1.0106 | -0.0211 | 0.9791 | 0.1532 | 1.1656 | - | - | - | - | sc1gr4 | 0.0084 | 1.0085 | 0.0638 | 1.0659 | -0.0825 | 0.9209 | -0.2295 | 0.7949 | 0.1963 | 1.2169 | - | - | sc1gr5 | -0.0325 | 0.9680 | 0.1033 | 1.1088 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | sc1gr6 | - | - | 0.0001 | 1.0001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | sc1gr7 | -0.0005 | 0.9995 | 0.0002 | 1.0002 | 0.0004 | 1.0004 | 0.0002 | 1.0002 | -0.0090 | 0.9911 | - | - | sc1gr8 | - | - | - | - | 0.0001 | 1.0001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | sc1gr9 | 0.0001 | 1.0001 | - | - | - | - | 0.0001 | 1.0001 | - | - | - | - | ROC value | 0.810 | 0.848 | 0.711 | 0.843 | 0.956 | 0.825 |
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Table 3. Results of logistic regression for different land use types in 2005 in the Qihe catchment, China
2015 | 2005 |
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Cultivated land | Woodland | Grassland | Water body | Construction land | Unused land | Total | Transferred-in Total |
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Cultivated land | 47422 | 3262.5 | 6655.5 | 1257.75 | 1714.5 | 0 | 60312.25 | 12890.25 | Woodland | 6169.5 | 51878.75 | 8196.75 | 231.75 | 67.5 | 4.5 | 66548.75 | 14670 | Grassland | 12114 | 12136.5 | 53237.5 | 591.75 | 299.25 | 2.25 | 78381.25 | 25143.75 | Water body | 2468.25 | 623.25 | 762.75 | 1404.75 | 155.25 | 0 | 5414.25 | 4009.5 | Construction land | 4475.25 | 391.5 | 555.75 | 117 | 6499.25 | 2.25 | 12041 | 5541.75 | Unused land | 9 | 13.5 | 6.75 | 0 | 2.25 | 2 | 33.5 | 31.5 | Total | 72658 | 68306 | 69415 | 3603 | 8738 | 11 | 222731 | - | Transferred-out Total | 25236 | 16427.25 | 16177.5 | 2198.25 | 2238.75 | 9 | - | 62286.75 |
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Table 4. Land use transfer matrix for 2005-2015 (ha) in the Qihe catchment, China
Time period | Significantly decreased(≤-20 t/ha) | Basically unchanged(-20 to 20 t/ha) | Significantly increased (≥20 t/ha) |
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Raster grid | Proportion (%) | Raster grid | Proportion (%) | Raster grid | Proportion (%) |
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2005-2015 | 3419 | 3.45 | 95205 | 96.11 | 430 | 0.43 | 2015-2025 (Q1) | 1599 | 1.61 | 97340 | 98.27 | 115 | 0.12 | 2015-2025 (Q2) | 595 | 0.60 | 97958 | 98.89 | 501 | 0.51 | 2015-2025 (Q3) | 170 | 0.17 | 97795 | 98.73 | 1089 | 1.10 |
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Table 5. Statistics on carbon density changes during 2005-2015 and 2015-2025 under different scenarios in the Qihe catchment, China