Dynamic transition mechanism analysis of the impact of energy development on urbanization in Central Asia

Yannan ZHOU; Yu YANG; Zhouying SONG; Ze HE; Siyou XIA; Yawen REN

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1814-8C

Journals >Journal of Geographical Sciences >Volume 30 >Issue 11 >Page 1825 > Article

Journal of Geographical Sciences
Vol. 30, Issue 11, 1825 (2020)

Dynamic transition mechanism analysis of the impact of energy development on urbanization in Central Asia

Yannan ZHOU^1,2,3, Yu YANG^1,2,3, Zhouying SONG^1,2,*, Ze HE^1,2,3..., Siyou XIA^1,2,3 and Yawen REN^1,2,3|Show fewer author(s)

Author Affiliations

¹Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

²College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

³Institute of Strategy Research of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangzhou 510070, China

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DOI: 10.1007/s11442-020-1814-8C Cite this Article

Yannan ZHOU, Yu YANG, Zhouying SONG, Ze HE, Siyou XIA, Yawen REN. Dynamic transition mechanism analysis of the impact of energy development on urbanization in Central Asia[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(11): 1825 Copy Citation Text

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Fig. 1. The Central Asian region

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Fig. 2. Transmission mechanism from energy development to urbanization

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Fig. 3. Statistical box chart of data

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Fig. 4. Changes in population urbanization rate and comprehensive urbanization in Central Asia during 1992-2016

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Fig. 5. Evolution of three subsystems (population, economy, and society) of comprehensive urbanization in Central Asia during 1992-2016

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Fig. 6. Energy development during 1992-2016 in Central Asia

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Fig. 7. Estimated relationship coefficients between energy development and urbanization in Central Asia

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Target level	Standard level	Index level	Definition	Unit
Comprehensive urbanization	Population urbanization	Urban population	Scale of people living in urban areas	Person
		Urban population rate	Urban population as percentage of total population	%
		Urban population growth	Growth rate of urban population	%
	Economic urbanization	Industrial structure	Share of secondary and tertiary industry added value over total GDP	%
		GDP per capita	Gross domestic product divided by population	Constant 2010 USD
		GDP growth	Growth rate of GDP	%
	Social urbanization	Transportation development	Energy consumption of transport	Mtoe
		Employment structure	Percentage of population employed in secondary and tertiary industries	%
		Technology level	Economic output (GDP) per energy consumption	Ten thousand 2010 USD per toe

Table 1.

Central Asia’s comprehensive urbanization indicator system

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ModelNumber of location parameters	Energy development scale		Energy trade		Energy consumption		Energy endowment
ModelNumber of location parameters	m = 1	m = 2	m = 1	m = 2	m = 1	m = 2	m = 1	m = 2
H₀: r = 0 vs H₁: r = 1	11.75	7.43	35.37	20.79	12.07	5.98	15.87	11.46
H₀: r = 0 vs H₁: r = 1	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
H₀: r = 1 vs H₁: r = 2	0.03	1.92	6.35	3.89	1.20	9.93	11.22	0.00
H₀: r = 1 vs H₁: r = 2	(0.85)	(0.15)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.27)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.99)
H₀: r = 2 vs H₁: r = 3	—	—	0.02	0.44	—	0.01	0.63	—
H₀: r = 2 vs H₁: r = 3	—	—	(0.88)	(0.64)	—	(0.99)	(0.43)	—
AIC	-3.02	-2.98	-2.83	-2.63	-2.53	-2.35	-2.83	-2.43
Schwarz	-2.93	-2.87	-2.66	-2.43	-2.44	-2.43	-2.67	-2.32

Table 2.

LM_f tests for determining the remaining nonlinearity of the number of location parameters

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Model(m, r*)	Energy development scale(1,1)	Energy trade(1,2)	Energy consumption(1,1)	Energy endowment(1,2)
β₀	-0.74^**	-0.66^***	-0.43^***	-1.62^***
	(-2.18)	(-4.48)	(-3.55)	(-6.38)
β₁	1.39^***	0.86^***	0.68^***	2.06^***
	(4.21)	(6.30)	(5.87)	(8.57)
β₂	—	-0.59^***	—	-0.26^***
	—	(-7.06)	—	(-6.29)
γ₁	4047.80	33.52	47.17	33.36
γ₂	—	-1.04	—	8.76
c₁	0.386	0.77	-1.24	0.66
c₂	—	3.04	—	3.18