To study the ballistic missile tracking performance in boost phase based on infrared early warning satellites system, Posterior Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (PCRLB) was proposed as a measurement index. After modeling ballistic target motion by 8-state gravity turn model and locating target position by dual satellites' bearing-only passive localization, PCRLB was used to evaluate the effects of factors, including target motion model accuracy, measurement accuracy, sampling period, detection probability and false alarm number conditioned by measurement origin uncertainty, on tracking timeliness and accuracy. One simulation example showed the extent and rules of said factors on position and tracking performance of velocity. It can contribute to the anti-ballistic missile operation by early warning satellite, the relationship modeling between tactical and technical indices and the optimal design of satellite-based infrared detector.