Chinese overseas ports: Market potential, supply capacity and access to imports

Michael DUNFORD; Zhigao LIU; Jiashun XUE

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1807-7

Journals >Journal of Geographical Sciences >Volume 30 >Issue 10 >Page 1681 > Article

Journal of Geographical Sciences
Vol. 30, Issue 10, 1681 (2020)

Chinese overseas ports: Market potential, supply capacity and access to imports

Michael DUNFORD^1、2, Zhigao LIU^{1、2、3、*}, and Jiashun XUE^1、4

Author Affiliations

¹Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

²Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

³College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

⁴University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

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DOI: 10.1007/s11442-020-1807-7 Cite this Article

Michael DUNFORD, Zhigao LIU, Jiashun XUE. Chinese overseas ports: Market potential, supply capacity and access to imports[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(10): 1681 Copy Citation Text

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Cumulative causation: conditions of production and exchange, specialization, trade and investment(Source: elaborated from Dunford et al., 2014)

Fig. 1. Cumulative causation: conditions of production and exchange, specialization, trade and investment(Source: elaborated from Dunford et al., 2014)

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Fig. 2. Overseas ports constructed or owned and operated by Chinese companies, 2017(Source: compiled by the authors from news and company reports)

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Fig. 3. Evolution and geography of Chinese overseas ports(Source: Chinese ports database. Note: CIS=Commonwealth of Independent States; EA=East Asia; EUR=Europe; LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean; MENA=Middle East and North Africa; NA=North America; OCE=Oceania; SA=South Asia; SEA=Southeast Asia; SSA=Sub-Saharan Africa)

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Fig. 4. Evolution of world exports in countries with and without Chinese overseas ports and of nominal global commodity prices, 2007-2017(Source: trade data elaborated from World Bank, WITS, https://wits.worldbank.org/ and World Bank, commodity prices from http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets)

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Fig. 5. Foreign market potential and supply capacity of Chinese overseas ports, 2008 to 2017

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Fig. 6. Foreign market potential and supply capacity of Chinese overseas ports, 2012 to 2017

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Fig. 7. Import supply and demand potential, 2008-2017

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Fig. 8. Import supply and demand potential, 2012-2017

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Fig. 9. Market potential, supply capacity and per capita GDP, 2017

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		2000	2008	2012	2017
GDP share (%)	Construction contract	15.0	15.5	15.5	14.9
	Investment	42.5	40.3	38.9	37.7
	Neither	42.5	44.2	45.6	47.4
Population share (%)	Construction contract	23.4	24.1	24.6	25.2
	Investment	15.9	15.7	15.6	15.4
	Neither	60.7	60.1	59.8	59.4
GDP per capita (2010 USD)	Construction contract	5202	6099	6153	6264
	Investment	21690	24319	24482	25974
	Neither	5694	6966	7481	8472
Export share (%)	Construction contract	19.7	18.2	17.5	17.3
	Investment	34.3	34.5	35.8	35.8
	Neither	45.9	47.3	46.7	46.9
Import share (%)	Construction contract	14.3	16.7	16.4	14.8
	Investment	40.5	38.4	37.8	39.0
	Neither	45.1	44.9	45.8	46.3
		2008	2012	2014	2017
Agriculture	Construction contract	11.0	16.5	14.9	17.1
	Investment	43.4	38.3	38.8	37.7
	Neither	45.6	45.2	46.3	45.2
Fuels	Construction contract	46.8	49.4	46.7	38.6
	Investment	23.0	22.4	22.8	26.5
	Neither	30.2	28.2	30.6	35.0
Manufactures	Construction contract	9.4	10.5	10.5	10.7
	Investment	33.1	29.9	29.9	28.5
	Neither	57.5	59.6	59.6	60.8
Ores and metals	Construction contract	19.8	25.1	25.5	25.8
	Investment	26.4	23.8	23.9	22.8
	Neither	53.7	51.1	50.5	51.4
Total exports	Construction contract	15.8	18.3	17.4	14.7
	Investment	32.6	30.0	30.1	29.4
	Neither	51.6	51.7	52.5	55.9

Table 1.

Gross domestic product, population and trade evolutions of countries with and without Chinese overseas ports (Source: elaborated from Chinese ports database, WITS and World Bank)

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Data used	Dependent variable	Year	Coefficients of distance	Adjusted R-squared	Reporter dummies (of 61 number not significant)	Partner dummies (of 205 number not significant)
Full trade matrix	ln(exports)	2008	-1.6537***	0.8813	15	0
		2012	-2.1889***	0.8948	1	0
		2017	-1.5850***	0.9025	18	0
	ln(imports)	2008	-1.5257***	0.8769	17	0
		2012	-1.9156***	0.9050	6	0
		2017	-1.3294***	0.9030	14	1
Revised trade matrix	ln(exports)	2008	-2.0107***	0.9691	12	0
		2017	-1.4228***	0.9706	14	0
	ln(imports)	2008	-1.5447***	0.9811	6	0
		2017	-1.5160***	0.9806	0	0

Table 2.

Estimating trade models for countries with Chinese overseas ports, 2008-2017

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	Export model	Import model
ln (2017 Foreign market demand potential)	0.486***
ln (2017 Foreign market supply capacity)	0.059***
ln (2017 Foreign partner supply capacity)		0.213
ln (2017 Foreign import access)		0.300***
Constant	4.542***	5.480**
F	13.330***	42.110***
R-squared	0.204	0.447

Table 3.

GDP per capita, market potential, supply capacity and foreign import access, 2017

Michael DUNFORD, Zhigao LIU, Jiashun XUE. Chinese overseas ports: Market potential, supply capacity and access to imports[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(10): 1681

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