• Journal of Natural Resources
  • Vol. 35, Issue 12, 12002980 (2020)
ZHENG Tao1、2、3, CHEN Shuang1、*, ZHANG Tong1、2, XU Li-ting1、2, and MA Li-ya1、2
Author Affiliations
  • 1Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
  • 2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • 3The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
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    Abstract

    From the micro perspective, the driving factors of ecological land loss in urban riverside area are analyzed, especially based on the quantitative analysis of the factors with crucial influences such as policy and planning, which has important reference significance for the formulation of ecological land protection policies. In this paper, the Bayesian network model is used to integrate the neighborhood factors, natural factors, policy and planning factors that lead to ecological land loss. And the relationship between ecological land change and its driving factors is clearly illustrated by a good graphical description method. The research results show that from 2005 to 2018, about 11.0% of the ecological land in Nanjing riverside area is lost, and the stable proportion of ecological land is 89.0%. The sensitivity of ecological land protection intensity to ecological land loss is as high as 9.37%, the sensitivity of construction potential factor is 2.53%, and the sensitivity of development difficulty is only 0.21%. The effect of shoreline planning is better than that of land use planning, which indicates that the protection policy based on the function goal of ecological land should be made to ensure the long-term existence of ecological space.

    生态用地作为自然空间的实体地域,为人类的生存及发展提供重要物质基础和空间载体[1]。改革开放以来,受快速城镇化与工业化影响,我国城市生态用地不断遭受侵蚀,尤其在经济较为发达地区,大量城郊的耕地、湿地、草地、林地等生态用地被开发为建设用地,对生态系统造成极大的迫害,导致各项生态系统服务功能价值的降低[2]。仅2009—2012年间,中国生态用地的生态系统服务价值就减少了2911.70亿元,其中减少较多的地区集中于东部和西部生态环境脆弱区[3]。生态用地的减少对本身就较为脆弱的城市生态系统造成较大影响,热岛效应、空气污染、水污染等城市病现象愈加频繁。

    Copy Citation Text
    Tao ZHENG, Shuang CHEN, Tong ZHANG, Li-ting XU, Li-ya MA. Research on driving mechanism of ecological land loss based on Bayesian network[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(12): 2980
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    Received: May. 14, 2019
    Accepted: --
    Published Online: May. 8, 2021
    The Author Email: CHEN Shuang (schens@niglas.ac.cn)