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    Journals >Resources Science >Volume 42 >Issue 4 >Page 696 > Article
    • Resources Science
    • Vol. 42, Issue 4, 696 (2020)
    Influencing factors and spatial differentiation of cultivated land abandonment at the household scale
    Beibei GUO1、*, Yelin FANG1, and Yinkang ZHOU2
    Author Affiliations
  • 1School of Business, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China
  • 2School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
    • show less
    DOI: 10.18402/resci.2020.04.09 Cite this Article
    Beibei GUO, Yelin FANG, Yinkang ZHOU. Influencing factors and spatial differentiation of cultivated land abandonment at the household scale[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(4): 696 Copy Citation Text show less
    Location of the study area and sample distribution
    Fig. 1. Location of the study area and sample distribution
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    Marginal effect of explicit and implicit abandonment of cultivated land
    Fig. 2. Marginal effect of explicit and implicit abandonment of cultivated land
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    Predicted values of probabilities of cultivated land abandonment and cultivated land use behaviors in different provinces
    Fig. 3. Predicted values of probabilities of cultivated land abandonment and cultivated land use behaviors in different provinces
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    类型变量定义均值标准差
    因变量y退耕=1;显性撂荒=2;隐性撂荒=3;转出耕地=4;正常耕种=5（参照组）;转入耕地=64.0271.316
    核心变量耕地投入产出x1农户承包耕地总面积/亩6.1877.635
    x2从事自家农业劳动人口总数/人0.5810.720
    x3耕地种植种子、农药、化肥投入资金/元,取对数5.9493.070
    x4种植业雇佣劳动力费用/元,取对数0.9462.397
    x5耕地灌溉费用/元,取对数1.3352.571
    x6租用机械所需费用/元,取对数1.0932.459
    x7耕地种植所需其他费用/元,取对数0.9472.239
    x8农户持有机械的总价值/元,取对数1.4932.391
    x9家庭出售与自家消耗农副产品总值之和/元,取对数5.1174.377
    政策特征x10家庭是否领取退耕还林补贴：是=1,否=00.0610.238
    x11家庭是否领取农业补贴：是=1,否=00.6250.484
    x12家庭是否经历土地征用：是=1,否=00.0370.189
    控制变量家庭特征x13家庭成员打工、工资、经营、转移和财产收入/元,取对数9.0962.601
    x14家庭人口总数/人4.2991.848
    户主特征x15户主的健康程度打分分为7级,其中0.9为非常健康,0.8为很健康,0.7为比较健康,0.6为一般,0.5为比较不健康,0.4为不健康,0.3为非常不健康0.7060.174
    x16户主是否参加技能培训：是=1,否=00.0150.120
    x17户主年龄/岁,取对数3.9220.231
    x18户主是否为男性：是=1,否=00.8120.391
    x19户主的教育年限/年4.7234.423
    x20户主是否为非农户口：是=1,否=00.0510.219
    村庄特征x21是否是丘陵：是=1,否=00.3190.466
    x22是否是除平原或丘陵以外的其他地貌：是=1,否=00.3450.475
    x23村庄与最近的集镇距离交通（步行、骑行、乘车等）所需时间/h12.26049.999
    x24村庄是否属于矿区：是=1,否=00.1630.369
    x25是否遭受自然灾害：是=1,否=00.4960.500
    x26是否是旅游景区：是=1,否=00.0470.211
    Table 1. Variable selection and definition
    层次变量退耕显性撂荒隐性撂荒耕地转出耕地转入
    回归系数边际效应回归系数边际效应
    耕地投入产出x1-0.808***0.0060.009***-0.014***0.0010.009-0.024***
    (0.160)(0.011)(0.001)(0.004)(0.001)(0.008)(0.007)
    x2-0.767***0.2430.017***-0.0190.005-0.466***0.137***
    (0.284)(0.186)(0.004)(0.036)(0.005)(0.087)(0.040)
    x3-1.005***-2.211***-0.033***-0.521***-0.048***-0.833***0.369***
    (0.068)(0.093)(0.002)(0.019)(0.002)(0.028)(0.040)
    x40.352**-2.615***-0.064***-0.074***-0.001-0.0060.044***
    (0.150)(0.207)(0.005)(0.009)(0.002)(0.019)(0.009)
    x50.162-2.415***-0.057***-0.032***0.007***-0.054**-0.009
    (0.176)(0.191)(0.005)(0.009)(0.002)(0.023)(0.012)
    x60.456***-2.685***-0.068***0.039***0.014***0.087***-0.001
    (0.151)(0.240)(0.006)(0.008)(0.002)(0.018)(0.010)
    耕地投入产出x70.322**-2.794***-0.068***-0.054***0.003**0.0060.0165*
    (0.164)(0.158)(0.004)(0.009)(0.002)(0.021)(0.010)
    x8-0.541***-1.312***-0.024***0.046***0.015***-0.148***0.080***
    (0.055)(0.062)(0.001)(0.009)(0.001)(0.022)(0.011)
    x9-0.407***-3.337***-0.074***0.086***0.026***0.068***-0.034***
    (0.039)(1.008)(0.023)(0.012)(0.004)(0.014)(0.009)
    政策特征x10-2.810***0.0420.028***-0.199**-0.007-0.588***-0.267**
    (0.561)(0.221)(0.004)(0.077)(0.009)(0.160)(0.126)
    x11-0.198-0.367***-0.007***-0.093*-0.015***0.221***0.025
    (0.124)(0.108)(0.002)(0.048)(0.006)(0.083)(0.052)
    x120.669***0.917***0.010***0.356***0.046***0.316*-0.452***
    (0.243)(0.240)(0.004)(0.098)(0.013)(0.174)(0.162)
    家庭特征x130.017-0.043*-0.001***-0.018***-0.0030.0460***0.008
    (0.033)(0.023)(0.000)(0.007)(0.001)(0.016)(0.009)
    x140.0390.0070.000-0.0090.000-0.091***0.006
    (0.031)(0.027)(0.001)(0.011)(0.001)(0.025)(0.016)
    户主特征x151.561***-0.196-0.020***-0.107-0.011-0.332*-0.041
    (0.304)(0.248)(0.005)(0.106)(0.013)(0.186)(0.167)
    x160.5000.5340.0020.097-0.0070.697***0.037
    (0.368)(0.401)(0.007)(0.179)(0.022)(0.266)(0.164)
    x170.3490.077-0.0050.0610.0080.476***-0.531***
    (0.267)(0.213)(0.004)(0.083)(0.010)(0.183)(0.114)
    x18-0.672***-0.1430.006**-0.031-0.002-0.208**0.228**
    (0.138)(0.121)(0.002)(0.046)(0.006)(0.087)(0.099)
    x19-0.003-0.0050.0000.0050.0010.017*-0.007
    (0.014)(0.013)(0.000)(0.004)(0.001)(0.009)(0.006)
    x200.2510.145-0.0010.0740.0100.157-0.246*
    (0.278)(0.178)(0.005)(0.103)(0.013)(0.149)(0.137)
    村庄特征x21-0.335*0.206*0.010***-0.014-0.003-0.1740.236**
    (0.174)(0.123)(0.003)(0.060)(0.007)(0.121)(0.109)
    x22-0.2020.2180.010***-0.065-0.003-0.327**0.055
    (0.174)(0.136)(0.003)(0.065)(0.008)(0.129)(0.094)
    x23-0.0010.0010.0000.0010.0000.0020
    (0.001)(0.001)(0.000)0.000(0.000)(0.001)(0.001)
    x24-0.528**-0.1190.002-0.082-0.0100.187-0.137
    (0.208)(0.164)(0.003)(0.073)(0.009)(0.125)(0.090)
    x251.074***0.396***-0.008***0.383***0.036***0.610***-0.061
    (0.139)(0.107)(0.002)(0.054)(0.006)(0.099)(0.070)
    x26-0.383-0.382-0.004-0.119-0.007-0.12-0.236*
    (0.402)(0.294)(0.007)(0.131)(0.016)(0.234)(0.132)
    Constant0.6912.938***0.231-1.826**-2.320***
    (1.207)(0.927)(0.372)(0.766)(0.554)
    Pseudo R2=0.360 伪似然对数=-21997.965
    Table 2. Results of multivariate logistics model of cultivated land utilization behaviors
    人口（x2）样本量退耕显性撂荒隐性撂荒耕地转出耕地转入
    系数边际效应系数边际效应系数边际效应系数边际效应系数边际效应
    19459-0.480-0.011*0.2110.004*0.148***0.011***-0.382***0.027***0.0640.004***
    (0.373)(0.006)(0.309)(0.005)(0.043)(0.006)(0.094)(0.006)(0.055)(0.005)
    21728-21.850***-0.038***-0.3320.080***-2.572***0.037***-1.516**-0.1670.412***0.080
    (0.413)(0.001)(0.531)(0.014)(0.454)(0.006)(0.599)(0.013)(0.101)(0.014)
    3275-19.810***-0.038***2.273***0.045***-22.070***0.058***-21.02***-0.196***0.1070.045***
    (0.438)(0.001)(0.411)(0.023)(0.151)(0.002)(0.208)(0.004)(0.190)(0.023)
    4102-20.360***-0.038***1.824***0.180***-22.120***0.056***-21.15***-0.196***0.993***0.180***
    (0.650)(0.001)(0.564)(0.044)(0.222)(0.003)(0.364)(0.004)(0.251)(0.044)
    516-20.470***-0.038***-15.170***0.032***-22.360***-0.068***-20.910***-0.196***-0.01890.032***
    (1.038)(0.001)(0.777)(0.071)(0.413)(0.001)(0.458)(0.004)(0.608)(0.071)
    61-18.550***-0.038***-16.770***-0.116***-23.420***-0.068***-22.130***-0.196***-25.010***-0.116***
    (1.475)(0.001)(1.170)(0.005)(1.016)(0.001)(1.013)(0.004)(0.970)(0.005)
    81-15.240***-0.038***-2.200-0.116-23.290***0.016***-21.620***-0.196***-24.620***-0.116***
    (1.800)(0.001)(4.231)(0.005)(1.020)(0.092)(1.022)(0.004)(0.997)(0.005)
    Table 3. Regression coefficients and marginal effect of cultivated land use behaviors and household agricultural labors
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    Beibei GUO, Yelin FANG, Yinkang ZHOU. Influencing factors and spatial differentiation of cultivated land abandonment at the household scale[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(4): 696
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