The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States, Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data

Lihua YUAN; Changqing SONG; Changxiu CHENG; Shi SHEN; Xiaoqiang CHEN; Yuanhui WANG

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1808-6

Journals >Journal of Geographical Sciences >Volume 30 >Issue 10 >Page 1702 > Article

Journal of Geographical Sciences
Vol. 30, Issue 10, 1702 (2020)

The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States, Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data

Lihua YUAN¹, Changqing SONG^1,2,*, Changxiu CHENG^1,2, Shi SHEN^1,2..., Xiaoqiang CHEN¹ and Yuanhui WANG¹|Show fewer author(s)

Author Affiliations

¹Center for GeoData and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

²State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

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DOI: 10.1007/s11442-020-1808-6 Cite this Article

Lihua YUAN, Changqing SONG, Changxiu CHENG, Shi SHEN, Xiaoqiang CHEN, Yuanhui WANG. The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States, Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(10): 1702 Copy Citation Text

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Numbers and scales of cooperation and conflict between the three dyads in two periods(Note: The ratio in Figures 1b and 1d denotes the ratio of absolute scales of conflict to cooperation between dyad countries.)

Fig. 1. Numbers and scales of cooperation and conflict between the three dyads in two periods(Note: The ratio in Figures 1b and 1d denotes the ratio of absolute scales of conflict to cooperation between dyad countries.)

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Fig. 2. Goldstein scales of conflict and cooperation between the USA and Russia in 2001.10-2016.12 period

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Fig. 3. The log-log plot of CCDF of the absolute cooperative and conflictual scales between the USA and China (Note: USA-CHN and CHN-USA mean the scales sent from the USA to China and those from China to the USA, respectively.)

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Fig. 4. The log-log plot of CCDF of the absolute cooperative and conflictual scales between the USA and Russia (Note: USA-RUS and RUS-USA mean the scales sent from the USA to Russia and those from Russia to the USA, respectively.)

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Fig. 5. The log-log plot of CCDF of the absolute cooperative and conflictual scales between Russia and China (Note: RUS-CHN and CHN-RUS mean the scales sent from Russia to China and those from China to Russia, respectively.)

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Dyads	Direction	Variables	Descriptions of variables
USA-CHN dyad	USA-CHN	UC_p, UC_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from the USA toward China
USA-CHN dyad	CHN-USA	CU_p, CU_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from China toward the USA
USA-RUS dyad	USA-RUS	UR_p, UR_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from the USA toward Russia
USA-RUS dyad	RUS-USA	RU_p, RU_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from Russia toward the USA
RUS-CHN dyad	RUS-CHN	RC_p, RC_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from Russia toward China
RUS-CHN dyad	RUS-CHN	CR_p, CR_f	Scales of cooperative/conflictual behavior from China toward Russia

Table 1.

Descriptions of the monthly time-series variables

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Independent variables	1992.01-2001.09 period				2001.10-2016.12 period
	Dependent variable				Dependent variable
	UC_p	CU_p	UC_f	CU_f	UC_p	CU_p	UC_f	CU_f
UC_p(-1)	-	0.038***	0.091**	0.159*	-	0.767	0.681	0.615
CU_p(-1)	0.649	-	0.090**	0.389	0.572	-	0.306	0.234
UR_p(-1)	0.296	0.460	0.161*	0.543	0.052**	0.033***	0.054**	0.571
RU_p(-1)	0.264	0.383	0.208	0.849	0.156*	0.146*	0.224	0.633
RC_p(-1)	0.007***	0.019***	0.328	0.024***	0.444	0.342	0.503	0.619
CR_p(-1)	0.007***	0.018***	0.382	0.018***	0.432	0.331	0.319	0.646
UC_f(-1)	0.866	0.754	-	0.149*	0.027***	0.031*	-	0.010***
CU_f(-1)	0.295	0.537	0.042***	-	0.760	0.698	0.269	-
UR_f(-1)	0.143*	0.210	0.146*	0.012***	0.833	0.836	0.083**	0.078**
RU_f(-1)	0.872	0.873	0.933	0.867	0.856	0.979	0.101*	0.550
RC_f(-1)	0.223	0.485	0.357	0.880	0.127*	0.055**	0.283	0.671
CR_f(-1)	0.473	0.561	0.496	0.669	0.557	0.253	0.829	0.731
R²	0.726	0.713	0.558	0.570	0.892	0.897	0.912	0.914
Adjusted R²	0.694	0.680	0.506	0.519	0.884	0.890	0.905	0.908
F-statistic	22.741	21.320	10.826	11.356	115.926	122.708	145.113	149.057

Table 2.

The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-China dyad in both periods

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Independent variables	1992.01-2001.09 period				2001.10-2016.12 period
	Dependent variable				Dependent variable
	UR_p	RU_p	UR_f	RU_f	UR_p	RU_p	UR_f	RU_f
UC_p(-1)	0.759	0.642	0.431	0.190*	0.097	0.060**	0.678	0.720
CU_p(-1)	0.842	0.719	0.568	0.273	0.055**	0.032***	0.642	0.840
UR_p(-1)	-	0.579	0.304	0.123*	-	0.827	0.762	0.900
RU_p(-1)	0.112*	-	0.163*	0.113*	0.856	-	0.805	0.766
RC_p(-1)	0.518	0.388	0.504	0.753	0.930	0.862	0.887	0.916
CR_p(-1)	0.250	0.166*	0.338	0.535	0.944	0.878	0.927	0.938
UC_f(-1)	0.832	0.770	0.656	0.919	0.057**	0.049***	0.308	0.208
CU_f(-1)	0.651	0.387	0.796	0.878	0.937	0.720	0.460	0.644
UR_f(-1)	0.391	0.626	-	0.332	0.123*	0.159*	-	0.003***
RU_f(-1)	0.863	0.559	0.511	-	0.430	0.287	0.787	-
RC_f(-1)	0.969	0.958	0.723	0.585	0.416	0.470	0.346	0.675
CR_f(-1)	0.978	0.941	0.542	0.605	0.604	0.428	0.886	0.535
R²	0.553	0.540	0.597	0.604	0.869	0.869	0.880	0.849
Adjusted R²	0.501	0.486	0.550	0.558	0.860	0.860	0.872	0.839
F-statistic	10.628	10.075	12.707	13.093	93.769	93.501	103.572	79.374

Table 3.

The significance level of the Granger/Wald test of the USA-Russia dyad in both periods

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Independent variables	1992.01-2001.09 period				2001.10-2016.12 period
	Dependent variable				Dependent variable
	RC_p	CR_p	RC_f	CR_f	RC_p	CR_p	RC_f	CR_f
UC_p(-1)	0.919	0.795	0.950	0.553	0.445	0.446	0.613	0.339
CU_p(-1)	0.673	0.807	0.626	0.728	0.236	0.263	0.856	0.538
UR_p(-1)	0.627	0.502	0.598	0.091	0.011***	0.011***	0.312	0.172*
RU_p(-1)	0.732	0.681	0.914	0.044***	0.007***	0.009***	0.277	0.163*
RC_p(-1)	-	0.601	0.911	0.119*	-	0.845	0.745	0.799
CR_p(-1)	0.480	-	0.971	0.415	0.696	-	0.851	0.603
UC_f(-1)	0.006***	0.001***	0.973	0.608	0.514	0.661	0.581	0.777
CU_f(-1)	0.004***	0.001***	0.614	0.602	0.303	0.398	0.359	0.195*
UR_f(-1)	0.965	0.453	0.131*	0.048***	0.062**	0.153*	0.028***	0.195*
RU_f(-1)	0.745	0.670	0.187*	0.905	0.566	0.833	0.181*	0.360
RC_f(-1)	0.000***	0.000***	-	0.887	0.272	0.214	-	0.198*
CR_f(-1)	0.001***	0.000***	0.054**	-	0.184*	0.202	0.917	-
R²	0.539	0.561	0.444	0.454	0.692	0.684	0.682	0.695
Adj. R²	0.485	0.509	0.379	0.391	0.670	0.662	0.659	0.673
F-statistic	10.024	10.947	6.845	7.145	31.616	30.524	30.180	32.109