Studying the carbon emissions of high-carbon manufacturing industry is helpful for promoting the sustainable development of China’s industries. Using the energy consumption data of China’s provincial manufacturing industry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission coefficient method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and dynamic spatial panel model, the study examined the spatial and temporal changes of carbon emissions in high-carbon manufacturing industry of 30 provinces (except Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) from 2006 to 2015. The results show that: Except Beijing and Shanghai Municipalities, carbon emissions in the rest of the provinces showed a growth trend. The “hot spots” of carbon emissions are concentrated in the Bohai Bay and Henan Province; Carbon emissions have clear path dependence and spillover effects in high-carbon manufacturing industry; The effect of economic growth is a main factor for the increase of provincial carbon emissions, and industrial structure change is an important factor for carbon emission reduction; The improvement of resource endowment level and the increase of fixed asset investment will lead to the increase of carbon emissions in neighboring provinces, but the improvement of technological level, industrial restructuring, greater openness to the outside world, and the increase of foreign investment are beneficial to reducing carbon emissions in neighboring provinces. In view of the above, the provinces should break provincial boundaries, form linkages and coordination mechanisms, break the bottleneck of technological innovation through complementary advantages, break the existing cognitive lock-in, and unlock unreasonable industrial policies. While achieving the goal of carbon emissions reduction, the green transformation and upgrading of the whole industry will be realized.