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    Journals >Journal of Geographical Sciences >Volume 30 >Issue 2 >Page 179 > Article
    • Journal of Geographical Sciences
    • Vol. 30, Issue 2, 179 (2020)
    Exploring global food security pattern from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution
    Jianming CAI1、2、3, Enpu MA1、2、3, Jing LIN1、*, Liuwen LIAO1、2、3, and Yan HAN1、2、3
    Author Affiliations
  • 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Analysis and Modelling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 3. School of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    • show less
    DOI: 10.1007/s11442-020-1722-y Cite this Article
    Jianming CAI, Enpu MA, Jing LIN, Liuwen LIAO, Yan HAN. Exploring global food security pattern from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(2): 179 Copy Citation Text show less
    Changes of the global food security pattern by country from 2000 to 2014
    Fig. 1. Changes of the global food security pattern by country from 2000 to 2014
    Download full size | View in the Article
    Hot and cold spots of the global food security pattern from 2000 to 2014
    Fig. 2. Hot and cold spots of the global food security pattern from 2000 to 2014
    Download full size | View in the Article
    Overall indexFirst layer factorsSecond layer indicators+/- influenceMeasurement methods
    Food security indexFood supplyX1: per capita food production (kg/person)+(1)X1 = total grain production/total population
    X2: per capita protein supply (g/person*day)+X2 = supply of food protein/total population * days of the year
    X3: per capita animal protein supply (g/person*day)+X3 = animal protein supply/total population * days of the year
    X4: rate of dietary energy supply (%)+X4 = population with daily dietary energy greater than 2320 kcal(2)/total population
    Food accessX5: food deficiency (kcal/person/day)-X5 = 2320 - daily per capita dietary energy taken by malnourished populations
    X6: per capita GDP (2011- dollar value)+X6 = gross domestic product converted by purchasing power parity/total population
    Food utilizationX7: the proportion of short children under 5 (%)-X7 = number of short children under 5/number of children under 5
    X8: the proportion of wasted children under 5 (%)-X8 = number of wasted children under 5/number of children under 5
    X9: proportion of population with access to clean water ( % )+X9 = population with clean water/total population
    Economic and political stabilityX10: variability in food production per capita-X10 = standard deviation of per capita food production/average of per capita food production
    X11: variability of food supply per capita(kcal/person/day)-X11 = standard deviation of per capita food supply
    X12: political stability and non-violence level+X12: World Governance Indicators Developed by the World Bank (WGI)(3)
    Table 1.

    Evaluation index system and measurement methods of food security

    View in the Article
    Influencing factorsMethods and dataData resource websites
    Z1: per capita arable land area (ha/person)Z1 = arable land area/total populationhttp://www.fao.org/faostat/en/
    Z2: per capita renewable water resources (m3/person)Z2 = renewable water resources/total populationrenewable water resource：http://chartsbin.com/view/1469;population：http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/
    Z3: annual precipitation (mm)Z3: provided by the climate research unit at the University of East Angliahttps://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_3.23/crucy.1506241137.v3.23/countries/pre/
    Z4: annual average temperature (℃)Z4: provided by the climate research unit at the University of East Angliahttps://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_3.23/crucy.1506241137.v3.23/countries/tmp/
    Z5: coordination degree of land and waterZ5 = renewable water/arable land arearenewable water resource：http://chartsbin.com/view/1469;arable land area：http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/
    Z6: chemical fertilizer applied per unit land area (kg/ha)Z6 = applied chemical fertilizers/arable land areahttp://www.fao.org/faostat/en/
    Z7: CO2 emissions (kt)Z7: from the National Greenhouse Gas Emission Dataset of the World Resources Institute. This dataset is a combination of data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, FAO, International Energy Agency, World Bank, and Environmental Protection Agency.http://datasets.wri.org/dataset/cait-country
    Z8: per capita GDP (dollar value in 2011)Z8 = GDP (dollar value in 2011)/total populationhttp://www.fao.org/faostat/en/
    Z9: the proportion of the population with access to clean water (%)Z9 = population with access to clean water/total populationhttp://www.fao.org/faostat/en/
    Z10: political stability and non-violence levelZ10: World Governance Indicators Developed by the World Bankhttps://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/worldwide-governance-indicators
    Table 2.

    The selection of influencing factors of food security and data sources

    View in the Article
    First layer indicatorsFood supplyFood accessibilityFood utilizationStability of the economic and political system
    Second layer variablesX1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8X9X10X11X12
    Weight0.210.280.330.180.510.490.390.310.30.270.310.42
    Table 3.

    Weight of each second layer variable

    View in the Article
    Year200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
    Moran's I0.220.220.220.230.240.250.280.270.280.260.290.250.270.240.27
    z-score14.0013.8413.7114.4015.1415.3917.1216.5117.6916.4418.2715.4416.6815.0417.04
    P-score000000000000000
    Table 4.

    Moran’s I, z-score and P-value of the food security index from 2000 to 2014

    View in the Article
    YearMulti-linear regression equationsR2FSig.
    2002FSI=0.26-0.14Z4+0.60Z8+0.42Z9+0.39Z100.78114.450.00
    2003FSI=0.22-0.19Z4+0.61Z8+0.49Z9+0.37Z100.79118.010.00
    2004FSI=0.19-0.19Z4+0.56Z8+0.52Z9+0.39Z100.78110.600.00
    2005FSI=0.06-0.17Z4+0.51Z8+0.62Z9+0.43Z100.79117.770.00
    2006FSI=0.31+0.14Z3-0.32Z4+0.71Z8+0.43Z9+0.33Z100.83124.080.00
    2007FSI=0.20-0.17Z4-0.36Z6+0.70Z8+0.55Z9+0.34Z100.83121.300.00
    2008FSI=0.32-0.24Z4+0.68Z8+0.47Z9+0.28Z100.82147.350.00
    2009FSI=0.31+0.11Z3-0.24Z4-0.18Z6+0.76Z8+0.44Z9+0.28Z100.83102.510.00
    2010FSI=0.26-0.16Z4-0.45Z6+0.86Z8+0.48Z9+0.24Z100.83124.830.00
    2011FSI=0.009-0.10Z4-0.64Z6+0.82Z8+0.61Z9+0.36Z100.86153.290.00
    2012FSI=0.23-0.10Z4-0.59Z6+0.83Z8+0.40Z9+0.31Z100.86152.710.00
    2013FSI=0.28-0.10Z4+0.35Z8+0.31Z9+0.25Z100.6970.320.00
    2014FSI=0.25-0.12Z4+0.39Z8+0.36Z9+0.28Z100.7280.870.00
    Table 5.

    Multi-linear regression equations served as control

    View in the Article
    YearTransformation equationsR2FSig.
    2002FSI=-0.24+0.09T4+0.57T8+0.30T9+0.29T100.83160.090.00
    2003FSI=-0.23+0.10T4+0.55T8+0.35T9+0.30T100.83157.890.00
    2004FSI=-0.28+0.11T4+0.54T8+0.37T9+0.29T100.82141.200.00
    2005FSI=-0.23+0.06T4+0.47T8+0.42T9+0.33T100.82146.460.00
    2006FSI=-0.23-0.04T3+0.16T4+0.56T8+0.34T9+0.25T100.88185.760.00
    2007FSI=-0.22+0.14T4-0.03T6+0.53T8+0.37T9+0.28T100.84129.990.00
    2008FSI=0.20T4+0.64T8-0.03T9+0.28T100.85186.050.00
    2009FSI=-0.31+0.04T3+0.16T4-0.02T6+0.59T8+0.28T9+0.30T100.86128.650.00
    2010FSI=-0.29+0.15T4+0.04T6+0.60T8+0.30T9+0.23T100.86160.090.00
    2011FSI=-0.22+0.08T4-0.06T6+0.55T8+0.35T9+0.34T100.85147.590.00
    2012FSI=-0.24+0.10T4-0.001T6+0.60T8+0.26T9+0.33T100.87162.640.00
    2013FSI=-0.23+0.10T4+0.37T8+0.46T9+0.39T100.7281.110.00
    2014FSI=-0.24+0.09T4+0.52T8+0.34T9+0.37T100.77106.880.00
    Table 6.

    Transformation equations

    View in the Article
    YearMulti-nonlinear regression equations
    2002FSI=0.30+0.27Z43-0.41Z42+0.12Z4-1.20Z82+1.52Z8+1.85Z93-2.83Z92+1.35Z9+0.20Z102+0.02Z10
    2003FSI=0.31-0.06Z4-1.16Z82+1.47Z8+2.04Z93-2.98Z92+1.31Z9+0.19Z102+0.05Z10
    2004FSI=0.28+0.03Z42-0.09Z4+0.25Z83-1.42Z82+1.47Z8+2.19Z93-3.32Z92+1.56Z9+0.11Z103+0.01Z102+0.12Z10
    2005FSI=-0.06-0.04Z4-1.01Z82+1.26Z8+3.38Z93-5.54Z92+2.91Z9+0.20Z102+0.27Z10
    2006FSI=0.34-0.13Z33+0.18Z32-0.05Z3-0.11Z4-1.18Z82+1.53Z8+2.65Z93-3.95Z92+1.7Z9+0.26Z103-0.17Z102+0.13Z10
    2007FSI=0.39-0.09Z4-0.35Z63+0.49Z62-0.15Z6-0.96Z82+1.28Z8+2.40Z93-3.51Z92+1.50Z9+0.22Z102-0.01Z10
    2008FSI=0.54-0.14Z4-1.22Z82+1.61Z8+0.30Z92-0.13Z9+0.21Z103-0.08Z102+0.11Z10
    2009FSI=0.39+0.12Z33-0.17Z32+0.06Z3-0.11Z4-0.14Z63+0.20Z62-0.08Z6-1.14Z82+1.47Z8+2.13Z93-3.26Z92+1.46Z9+0.26Z103-0.11Z102+0.10Z10
    2010FSI=0.38+0.02Z42-0.12Z4+0.82Z63-1.07Z62+0.26Z6-1.18Z82+1.52Z8+2.47Z93-3.79Z92+1.69Z9+0.24Z103-0.14Z102+0.10Z10
    2011FSI=-0.02-0.05Z4-3.32Z63+3.91Z62-0.61Z6-1.13Z82+1.45Z8+3.10Z93-5.10Z92+2.62Z9+0.45Z103-0.56Z102+0.47Z10
    2012FSI=0.35-0.06Z4-0.06Z63+0.07Z62-0.01Z6-1.03Z82+1.39Z8+1.96Z93-3.01Z92+1.34Z9+0.33Z103-0.27Z102+0.23Z10
    2013FSI=0.46-0.04Z4+0.32Z83-0.77Z82+0.63Z8+1.69Z93-2.21Z92+0.68Z9+0.29Z103-0.30Z102+0.24Z10
    2014FSI=0.49-0.04Z4+0.97Z83-1.90Z82+1.24Z8+1.33Z93-1.70Z92+0.49Z9+0.29Z102-0.09Z10
    Table 7.

    Multi-nonlinear regression equations

    View in the Article
    YearAnnual precipitationAnnual average temperatureChemical fertilizer applied per unit land areaPer capita GDPProportion of the population with access to clean waterPolitical stability and non-violence level
    2002--0.0216-0.31920.3720.2262
    2003--0.057-0.3190.3780.243
    2004--0.0682-0.2970.43660.2436
    2005--0.0354-0.25380.75180.4713
    2006-0.0104-0.1104-0.34720.39780.22
    2007--0.0924-0.00870.3180.38850.2128
    2008--0.138-0.3840.16890.2324
    20090.0048-0.1056-0.00660.32450.32760.252
    2010--0.10050.0120.3360.3630.1955
    2011--0.10-0.640.820.610.36
    2012--0.056-0.000290.3540.28860.2871
    2013--0.038-0.1850.1610.2379
    2014--0.0378-0.3120.12240.2035
    Table 8.

    Influence coefficient of each factor

    View in the Article
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    Jianming CAI, Enpu MA, Jing LIN, Liuwen LIAO, Yan HAN. Exploring global food security pattern from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(2): 179
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