Price fluctuation of aquatic product resources trade between China and ASEAN: Take export of frozen mackerel as an example

Ying ZHANG; Wen-ting DU

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20200912

Journals >Journal of Natural Resources >Volume 35 >Issue 9 >Page 2191 > Article

Journal of Natural Resources
Vol. 35, Issue 9, 2191 (2020)

Price fluctuation of aquatic product resources trade between China and ASEAN: Take export of frozen mackerel as an example

Ying ZHANG and Wen-ting DU

Author Affiliations

School of Management, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, Shandong, China

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DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20200912 Cite this Article

Ying ZHANG, Wen-ting DU. Price fluctuation of aquatic product resources trade between China and ASEAN: Take export of frozen mackerel as an example[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(9): 2191 Copy Citation Text

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Fig. 3. Price fluctuation trend of frozen mackerel exported by China to ASEAN and its major countries from 2012 to 2017

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Fig. 4. Seasonal factors of price fluctuation of frozen mackerel exported by China to ASEAN and its major countries

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Fig. 5. Irregular factors of price fluctuation of frozen mackerel exported by China to ASEAN and its major countries

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Fig. 6. Price fluctuation trend decomposition of frozen mackerel exported by China to ASEAN and its major countries

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	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年
冻鲭鱼出口量/水产品总出口量	7.11	5.80	5.67	5.94	8.69	10.48
向东盟冻鲭鱼出口量/总体冻鲭鱼出口量	68.29	65.12	58.95	61.15	66.70	64.31
向东盟冻鲭鱼出口量/向东盟总水产品出口量	24.77	20.41	18.09	18.06	27.88	30.93
冻鲭鱼出口额/水产品总出口额	2.35	1.84	1.79	1.99	3.00	3.54
向东盟冻鲭鱼出口额/总体冻鲭鱼出口额	72.70	67.78	59.93	63.97	63.50	71.61
向东盟冻鲭鱼出口额/向东盟水产品总出口额	10.77	7.70	10.57	6.84	10.57	14.49

Table 1. Proportion of China's aquatic products and frozen mackerel exports from 2012 to 2017 (%)

变量	最大值	最小值	均值	标准差	偏度	峰度
东盟	2.11	1.66	1.87	0.09	-0.02	3.26
印度尼西亚	2.27	1.60	1.83	0.11	0.54	4.97
菲律宾	2.11	1.50	1.92	0.12	-1.44	5.55
马来西亚	7.30	1.56	2.41	0.71	4.66	32.37
泰国	2.78	1.37	1.84	0.20	1.03	9.12

Table 2. Descriptive statistical analysis of exported frozen mackerel prices

变量	ADF值	1%的临界值	5%的临界值	10%的临界值	P值
对东盟出口冻鲭鱼价格	-3.957^***	-3.558	-2.917	-2.594	0.002
对印度尼西亚出口冻鲭鱼价格	-4.689^***	-3.558	-2.917	-2.594	0.000
对菲律宾出口冻鲭鱼价格	-3.330^**	-3.558	-2.917	-2.594	0.014
对马来西亚出口冻鲭鱼价格	-6.310^***	-3.558	-2.917	-2.594	0.000
对泰国出口冻鲭鱼价格	-4.915^***	-3.558	-2.917	-2.594	0.000

Table 3. Test results of variable ADF

变量	t值	P值
$PA : RESI D^{2}$ (-2)	2.241^**	0.025
$PI : RESI D^{2}$ (-1)	4.538^***	0.000
$PF : RESI D^{2}$ (-1)	2.142^**	0.036
$PM : RESI D^{2}$ (-1)	3.202^***	0.001
$PT : RESI D^{2}$ (-1)	2.730^***	0.008

Table 4. Test results of variable ARCH-LM

	长期趋势	季节波动	不规则波动	周期波动
对东盟出口冻鲭鱼价格	95.38	1.00	1.49	2.14
对印度尼西亚出口冻鲭鱼价格	94.53	1.12	2.03	2.31
对菲律宾出口冻鲭鱼价格	94.62	1.17	1.84	2.37
对马来西亚出口冻鲭鱼价格	81.33	4.98	6.47	7.21
对泰国出口冻鲭鱼价格	90.16	2.58	3.61	3.65

Table 5. Contribution of different factors to export price of frozen mackerel (%)

Ying ZHANG, Wen-ting DU. Price fluctuation of aquatic product resources trade between China and ASEAN: Take export of frozen mackerel as an example[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(9): 2191

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