• Journal of Natural Resources
  • Vol. 35, Issue 9, 2191 (2020)
Ying ZHANG and Wen-ting DU
Author Affiliations
  • School of Management, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, Shandong, China
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    DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20200912 Cite this Article
    Ying ZHANG, Wen-ting DU. Price fluctuation of aquatic product resources trade between China and ASEAN: Take export of frozen mackerel as an example[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(9): 2191 Copy Citation Text show less

    Abstract

    ASEAN is the third largest aquatic product export partner in China. It is very important to grasp the price fluctuations of aquatic product export to ASEAN, so as to predict the fluctuation trend of aquatic product export price, provide basis and support for expanding the potential of aquatic product trade, effectively allocate fishery resources, and promote the establishment of aquatic product information system. Mackerel, as one of the main aquatic products exported in China, plays an important role in the aquatic products trade with ASEAN. Because mackerel is not easy to preserve and has higher requirements for processing technology, it is basically exported by refrigeration. Based on the important position of frozen mackerel in China's aquatic products export, in this paper, we take frozen mackerel as an example to study the four factors of clustering, asymmetry and price fluctuation of its export prices by using ARCH model and H-P filtering method for the monthly price data of China's export of frozen mackerel to ASEAN from 2012 to 2017. The results show that: (1) The export price of frozen mackerel has clustering property and can be predicted. The cluster size has a positive correlation with the export scale, among which, the price prediction is better with Indonesia. However, the price of frozen mackerel exported by China to ASEAN and its major countries is not asymmetric. The reason is that mackerel production mainly depends on fishing methods and is not easy to preserve. The impact of market shock caused by rising and falling price is basically the same. (2) The price shows obvious seasonal fluctuations and price fluctuation has a certain periodicity, which can be divided into 3 or 4 cycles. In addition, the price fluctuation range before 2014-2015 is greater than that in the later period. (3) Price fluctuation is composed of four factors: long-term trend, periodic fluctuation, seasonal fluctuation and irregular fluctuation. The contribution rate of frozen mackerel export price fluctuation is as follows: long-term trend > periodic fluctuation > irregular fluctuation > seasonal fluctuation. It should be noted that due to the limitation of data acquisition, the trade of other aquatic products and the trade between China and other economies outside ASEAN have not been studied at present.
    Ying ZHANG, Wen-ting DU. Price fluctuation of aquatic product resources trade between China and ASEAN: Take export of frozen mackerel as an example[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(9): 2191
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