The rapid urbanization has constantly changed the transformation of land resources. With rapid growth of economic and population, urbanization has also led to many ecological and environmental problems. Simulating the mechanism of urban expansion and providing early warning of the risk of urban land use change in the future can help to regulate and control urban development. In addition, most urban expansion simulation studies select common drivers and uniform transformation rules for simulation and prediction. Insufficient consideration of spatial heterogeneity increases the simulation error.This paper proposed an urban expansion simulation model based on the geospatial partition and Future Land Use Simulation （FLUS） model for simulating and predicting complex land use change. The model used multiple indicator data for spatial clustering in township streets and grid units, and divided Pearl River Delta into 10 sub-regions. Urban expansion simulation was performed under unpartitioned and partitioned scenarios with geospatial partition results. The simulation results of the urban expansion in the Pearl River Delta from 2005 to 2015 show that the simulation accuracy under the partitioned （FoM=0.2329, increase 9%） scenario is significantly higher than that of the unpartitioned scenario. Land use conversion potentials in different districts display spatial differences. Combining geospatial partition with FLUS model can simulate urban land use change more effectively. The Markov chain model was used to predict the number of future land types. The model was further applied to simulate land use changes in the Pearl River Delta in 2025, 2035 and 2045. Based on the impact of urban expansion on urban form, ecology and intensity, this paper constructed an urban expansion early warning indicator evaluation system to assess the alert of urban expansion. Furthermore, this system can predict the level of urban expansion deterioration and provide a scientific reference for urban development planning and monitoring. Based on the simulated results of land use change between 2025 and 2045, an early warning analysis of urban expansion in Pearl River Delta was conducted at the partition and city level. The results show that the urban expansion of most cities in the region will reach above the middle and heavy level in 2045. Dongguan will always maintain heavy level in the future. Urban expansion in Pearl River Delta is not optimistic. The analysis suggests that strengthening macro-control on urban expansion in Pearl River Delta to alleviate alarm of future urban expansion.