• Geographical Research
  • Vol. 39, Issue 9, 2130 (2020)
Qiong LI1、2, Songlin LI1, Lanlan ZHANG3, Hao LI4, and Yi LIU5、*
Author Affiliations
  • 1Business School of Jishou University, Jishou 416000, Hunan China
  • 2Jishou University Academician Workstation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Jishou 416000, Hunan China
  • 3School of Economics and Management, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410000, China
  • 4School of Accounting, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China
  • 5Academy of Great Bay Area Studies, Guangzhou 510070, China
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    DOI: 10.11821/dlyj020200360 Cite this Article
    Qiong LI, Songlin LI, Lanlan ZHANG, Hao LI, Yi LIU. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's population aging and its economic effects[J]. Geographical Research, 2020, 39(9): 2130 Copy Citation Text show less
    Population aging trends in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangdong Province, and China from 1990 to 2015
    Fig. 1. Population aging trends in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangdong Province, and China from 1990 to 2015
    Per capita GDP trend of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2015
    Fig. 2. Per capita GDP trend of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2015
    Evolution of the spatial pattern of aging coefficients in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015
    Fig. 3. Evolution of the spatial pattern of aging coefficients in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015
    Evolution of the spatial pattern of per capita GDP in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015
    Fig. 4. Evolution of the spatial pattern of per capita GDP in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015
    LISA clustering chart of per capita GDP of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 2015
    Fig. 5. LISA clustering chart of per capita GDP of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 2015
    老龄化系数(P)人口结构类型老龄化系数(P)人口结构类型
    P < 4.0年轻型7~10老年型I期
    4.0~5.5成年型I期10~14老年型II期
    5.5~7.0成年型II期P≥14.0老年型III期
    Table 1. Aging coefficient and population age structure (%)
    1990年2000年2010年2015年
    深圳年轻型年轻型年轻型年轻型
    东莞成年型I期年轻型年轻型年轻型
    惠州成年型II期成年型II期成年型II期成年型II期
    中山成年型II期成年型I期成年型I期成年型II期
    佛山成年型II期成年型I期成年型I期成年型II期
    珠海成年型I期成年型I期成年型I期成年型II期
    广州成年型II期成年型II期成年型II期老年型I期
    肇庆成年型II期老年型I期老年型I期老年型II期
    澳门成年型II期老年型I期老年型I期老年型I期
    江门老年型I期老年型I期老年型I期老年型II期
    香港老年型I期老年型II期老年型II期老年型III期
    区域平均成年型II期成年型II期成年型II期老年型I期
    全国成年型II期老年型I期老年型I期老年型II期
    Table 2. Evolution of population age structure in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2015
    地区1990年2000年2010年2015年
    人均GDP老龄化系数人均GDP老龄化系数人均GDP老龄化系数人均GDP老龄化系数
    广州10386.3030956.10129186.67218607.92
    佛山8696.7724435.25118635.25173836.79
    肇庆3256.238967.8641349.08781210.2
    深圳13212.2239611.23139291.79253592.90
    东莞9504.9916522.0977992.29121373.74
    惠州4185.9416766.2357095.91106316.55
    珠海10574.6233544.03115055.01200266.64
    中山7336.2818214.6289804.43150935.73
    江门5097.9415528.6652629.08796311.39
    香港131108.462531910.943255013.084243015.29
    澳门100416.59148797.08526507.38707958.98
    区域平均30706.5656095.64129805.96205097.37
    Table 3. [in Chinese]
    Moran’s IE(I)SDZP
    0.2681-0.02330.10452.78320.0170
    Table 4. Moran ’s I test results of the global per capita GDP of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
    被解释变量:ln Y
    VariableOLSSEMSAR
    Constant-11.4904***(1.93)-13.4848***(1.45)-11.1651***(1.81)
    p-0.0343**(0.02)-0.0291**(0.01)-0.0284*(0.02)
    ln K0.5694***(0.10)0.5799***(0.08)0.5519***(0.10)
    ln L1.5501***(0.18)1.7165***(0.13)1.3829***(0.20)
    Rho0.1468(1.17)
    Lambda-0.5047**(0.20)
    Adj-R-squared0.7955
    AIC23.704319.944724.6494
    SC30.841127.081533.5703
    Log likelihood-7.8522-5.9723-7.3247
    Table 5. Regression results of the impact of population aging on economic growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
    被解释变量:ln Y
    Variable经济距离权重地理距离权重
    SEMSARSEMSAR
    Constant-15.7945***(2.46)-10.7587***(1.66)-11.4904***(1.90)-22.2587***(2.03)
    p-0.0449***(0.01)-0.0459***(0.01)-0.0343**(0.02)-0.0350**(0.02)
    lnK0.5545***(0.08)0.548***(0.08)0.5694***(0.10)0.5815***(0.09)
    lnL1.5381***(0.15)1.5185***(0.15)1.5501***(0.17)1.5828***(0.17)
    Rho-0.3146***(0.10)0.9091***(0.06)
    Lambda-0.3006***(0.10)1.1000***(0.07)
    Adj-R-squared
    AIC18.755518.802922.271024.2710
    SC29.460729.508029.407733.1919
    Log likelihood-3.3778-3.4015-7.1355-7.1355
    Table 6. Model regression results under economic distance weight matrix and geographical distance weight matrix
    年份老龄化系数(%)类型人均GDP(美元)年份老龄化系数(%)类型人均GDP(美元)
    19908.46老年型I期13110200512.25老年型II期26093
    19918.73老年型I期14955200612.43老年型II期27697
    19929.00老年型I期17356200712.61老年型II期29902
    19939.25老年型I期19659200812.69老年型II期30871
    19949.51老年型I期21673200912.89老年型II期30696
    19959.78老年型I期22765201013.08老年型II期32550
    199610.12老年型II期24702201113.31老年型II期35142
    199710.42老年型II期27169201213.70老年型II期36732
    199810.66老年型II期25507201314.27老年型III期38403
    199910.93老年型II期24713201414.71老年型III期40315
    200010.94老年型II期25319201515.29老年型III期42430
    200111.22老年型II期24771201615.85老年型III期43735
    200211.52老年型II期24120201716.43老年型III期46221
    200311.82老年型II期23293201816.99老年型III期48672
    200412.07老年型II期24454
    Table 7. Evolution of the age structure of Hong Kong's population from 1990 to 2018
    变量ADF检验各显著性水平的临界值
    0.010.050.10
    lnY-2.4939-4.6679-3.7332-3.3103
    D(lnY)-3.4700-3.9591-3.0810-2.6813
    lnK-2.6971-4.8000-3.7912-3.3423
    D(lnK)-7.6940-4.8000-3.7912-3.3423
    lnL-1.9862-4.6679-3.7332-3.3103
    D(lnL)-4.0244-3.9591-3.0810-2.6813
    O-2.1373-4.6679-3.7332-3.3103
    D(O)-2.8201-4.7283-3.7597-3.3249
    D(D(O))-5.3735-4.0044-3.0989-2.6904
    Table 8. ADF unit root test
    假设条件EigenvalueTrace Statistic5% Crititical ValueProb.
    None0.982799.274447.85610.0000
    At most 10.909442.479429.79710.0011
    At most 20.39078.855015.49470.3790
    Table 9. Johansen cointegration test results
    VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-statisticProb.
    Constant-27.33224.7933-5.70220.0001
    lnL2.44370.40386.05210.0001
    D(p)-0.40530.1842-2.20040.0481
    lnK1.01600.13157.72710.0000
    R-squared0.9010Mean dependent var12.3441
    Adjusted R-squared0.8763S.D. dependent var0.1869
    S.E. of regression0.0657Akaike info criterion-2.3937
    Sum squared resid0.0519Schwarz criterion-2.2005
    Log likelihood23.1496Hannan-Quinn criter.-2.3838
    F-statistic36.4117Durbin-Watson stat2.0637
    Prob(F-statistic)0.0000
    Sample(adjusted):1997:2012
    Table 10. regression results of the impact of population aging on economy
    Qiong LI, Songlin LI, Lanlan ZHANG, Hao LI, Yi LIU. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's population aging and its economic effects[J]. Geographical Research, 2020, 39(9): 2130
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