• High Power Laser and Particle Beams
  • Vol. 36, Issue 8, 085001 (2024)
Chuanyu Xiong1, Xiaohong Liao1, Shiying He2,*, Ran Chen1..., Wei Wang1, Nan Zang2,3, Ying Wang2,4 and Menghan Xiao5,6|Show fewer author(s)
Author Affiliations
  • 1Economic and Technological Research Institute, State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co., Ltd. Wuhan 430000, China
  • 2Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China
  • 3School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230601, China
  • 4Institutes of Physical Science and Information Technology, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China
  • 5School of Electrical Engineering and Electronics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
  • 6Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co., Ltd. Wuhan 430000, China
  • show less
    DOI: 10.11884/HPLPB202436.230349 Cite this Article
    Chuanyu Xiong, Xiaohong Liao, Shiying He, Ran Chen, Wei Wang, Nan Zang, Ying Wang, Menghan Xiao. EMD-FFT-SARIMA photovoltaic power generation prediction model using fast fourier transform optimization cycle parameters[J]. High Power Laser and Particle Beams, 2024, 36(8): 085001 Copy Citation Text show less
    Predictive model flowchart
    Fig. 1. Predictive model flowchart
    Chart of predicted values versus raw values
    Fig. 2. Chart of predicted values versus raw values
    Component period and power diagram after FFT decomposition
    Fig. 3. Component period and power diagram after FFT decomposition
    Prediction error of the IMF-SARIMA model
    Fig. 4. Prediction error of the IMF-SARIMA model
    Comparison of the predicted values of the two models
    Fig. 5. Comparison of the predicted values of the two models
    Comparison between EMD-FT-SARIMA predicted values and original values
    Fig. 6. Comparison between EMD-FT-SARIMA predicted values and original values
    modeACFPACF
    AR(p)trailingtruncated after p-order
    MA(q)truncated after q-ordertrailing
    ARMA(pq)trailingtrailing
    Table 1. p, q parameters selection table
    pqBAIC
    01−1311
    10−1369
    11−1052
    Table 2. p, q parameters selection
    PQBAIC
    11−1471
    21−1699
    33−1162
    Table 3. P, Q parameter selection
    predictive modelsδRMSEδMAE
    EMD-SARIMA120.652.87
    Table 4. EMD-SARIMA model prediction error indicators
    portion sizeTperiod
    IMF136
    IMF224
    IMF348
    IMF448
    IMF548
    IMF611001
    IMF797
    IMF85004
    IMF913291
    IMF1013078
    IMF111764
    IMF123333
    IMF137500
    IMF1415000
    IMF1515000
    Table 5. IMF components and cycle values
    predictive modelsδRMSEδMAE
    EMD-FFT-SARIMA19.312.3
    EMD-SARIMA120.652.87
    Table 6. EMD-FFT-SARIMA model prediction error indicators
    Chuanyu Xiong, Xiaohong Liao, Shiying He, Ran Chen, Wei Wang, Nan Zang, Ying Wang, Menghan Xiao. EMD-FFT-SARIMA photovoltaic power generation prediction model using fast fourier transform optimization cycle parameters[J]. High Power Laser and Particle Beams, 2024, 36(8): 085001
    Download Citation