• Journal of Natural Resources
  • Vol. 35, Issue 6, 1460 (2020)
Xiang WANG and Jian-jun HUAI*
Author Affiliations
  • School of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China
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    DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20200617 Cite this Article
    Xiang WANG, Jian-jun HUAI. Multi-risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters based on a three-level hierarchical framework[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(6): 1460 Copy Citation Text show less
    A three-level hierarchical framework for assessing agrometeorological disasters
    Fig. 1. A three-level hierarchical framework for assessing agrometeorological disasters
    Trends of rate and intensity of various disasters in Shaanxi province from 1980 to 2015
    Fig. 2. Trends of rate and intensity of various disasters in Shaanxi province from 1980 to 2015
    Analysis of causal matrices for floods, droughts, hail and freezing disasters
    Fig. 3. Analysis of causal matrices for floods, droughts, hail and freezing disasters
    Bayesian network model diagram
    Fig. 4. Bayesian network model diagram
    变量名变量定义
    自然资本有效灌溉面积率省有效灌溉面积/khm2/省农作物种植面积/khm2
    农作物种植面积实际播种或移植有农作物的面积/khm2
    物质资本农业机械总动力用于农业的各种动力机械的动力总和/104 kW
    农村用电量为农村居民生活服务的各种用电量/108 kWh
    农用氮肥施用折纯量用于农业生产的氮肥数量/104 t,施用量要求按折纯量计算
    农用磷肥施用折纯量用于农业生产的磷肥数量/104 t,施用量要求按折纯量计算
    农用钾肥施用折纯量用于农业生产的钾肥数量/104 t,施用量要求按折纯量计算
    农用复合肥施用折纯量用于农业生产的复合肥数量/104 t,施用量要求按折纯量计算
    金融资本农村居民家庭人均纯收入按农村人口平均的农民纯收入/¥
    农业GDP以货币形式表现的农业全部产品的总量/108 ¥
    人力资本乡村男性从业人员在农村工作的男性人员数量/104
    乡村女性从业人员在农村工作的女性人员数量/104
    暴露暴露指数某种灾害年灾害率与平均灾害率的比值减1
    敏感性敏感性指数某种作物年产量与平均产量的比值减1
    脆弱性脆弱性指数敏感性指数与暴露指数的比值
    灾害特征灾害率某种灾害的受灾面积/khm2/农作物总耕作面积/khm2
    灾害强度某种灾害的成灾面积/khm2/受灾面积/khm2
    灾害情况灾害发生情况灾害发生为1,不发生为0
    作物产量减产比例[正常年份作物产量(0.5 kg)-灾害发生年份作物产量(0.5 kg)]/正常年份作物产量(0.5 kg)
    Table 1. Variable selection and definition
    节点父节点条件概率=1
    Y=1Y=2Y=3Y=4Y=5
    洪涝减产比例Y0.010.030.050.010.07
    旱灾洪涝减产比例Y0.230.230.080.080.02
    无洪涝减产比例Y0.080.530.450.430.33
    霜冻旱灾减产比例Y0.070.120.110.070.19
    无旱灾减产比例Y0.050.430.520.610.52
    连阴雨霜冻减产比例Y0.160.100.060.150.14
    无霜冻减产比例Y0.020.100.080.180.28
    风灾旱灾减产比例Y0.070.060.100.050
    无旱灾减产比例Y0.030.200.050.030.05
    冰雹霜冻减产比例Y00.030.020.030
    无霜冻减产比例Y0.010.080.160.110.02
    Table 2. Bayesian network model conditional probability
    脆弱性生计资本
    X1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8X9X10
    粮食洪涝
    干旱
    风雹
    冷冻



    -0.18*



    -0.18*


    18.85*
    -0.36*



    -0.33**



    0.45*
    小麦洪涝
    干旱
    风雹
    冷冻


    -33.59*


    30.01*
    谷子洪涝
    干旱
    风雹
    冷冻



    0.75*



    -0.48*

    58.05*



    -1.24*



    -1.10*



    1.10*
    大豆洪涝
    干旱
    风雹
    冷冻

    -2.88*

    -0.50.

    -2.63*

    0.69**

    -6.64*
    28.13*
    -1.38*
    4.48*
    Table 3. BHM model results
    Xiang WANG, Jian-jun HUAI. Multi-risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters based on a three-level hierarchical framework[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(6): 1460
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