System dynamics simulation on China&#39;s energy consumption in 2050: Based on the policy scenarios of key industries

Ze HE; Yan-nan ZHOU; Yi LIU

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20201111

Journals >Journal of Natural Resources >Volume 35 >Issue 11 >Page 2696 > Article

Journal of Natural Resources
Vol. 35, Issue 11, 2696 (2020)

System dynamics simulation on China's energy consumption in 2050: Based on the policy scenarios of key industries

Ze HE^{1、2、3、4}, Yan-nan ZHOU^1、2、3, and Yi LIU^{1、2、3、*}

Author Affiliations

¹Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling/Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

²College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

³Institute of Strategy Research of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangzhou 510070, China

⁴Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Utrecht University, Utrecht 3584CB, Netherlands

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DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201111 Cite this Article

Ze HE, Yan-nan ZHOU, Yi LIU. System dynamics simulation on China's energy consumption in 2050: Based on the policy scenarios of key industries[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(11): 2696 Copy Citation Text

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Fig. 1. Framework of energy policy simulation

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Fig. 2. Changes of China's total value of primary energy consumption under three scenarios

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Fig. 3. Changes of different types of China's primary energy consumption under three scenarios

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Fig. 4. Changes in the structure of China's primary energy consumption under three scenarios

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Fig. 5. Changes of China's overseas dependence in oil and gas sections under three scenarios(based on production prediction from DNV·GL^[25])

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Fig. 6. Changes of China's overseas dependence in oil and gas sections under three scenarios (based on production prediction from China's Institute of Petroleum Technology and Economics^[8])

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部门	转型情景	加速转型情景
交通	● 加快推进交通去油化,提高电动汽车市场化水平。到2050年,轿车和SUV占比达到7%,公交车占20%,卡车占20%,电驱动铁路客运与货运的年替代率6%,电动摩托车年替代率5%● 持续提高燃料经济性。到2050年轿车和SUV的燃油经济性提升30%,重型车辆提升24%,飞机提升27%,货运列车提升31%,船舶提升33%,摩托车提高247%
建筑	● 提升建筑电气化程度。到2050年,城市建筑电气化程度提升到35%,乡村建筑提升到38%,商业建筑提升到49%● 加大建筑节能改造,推广更严格的能效标准。城乡住宅及商业建筑制热效率提升40%,城乡住宅及商业建筑制冷效率提升50%,城乡住宅照明效率提升26%,商业建筑提升15%,城乡住宅及商业建筑围护结构提升效率40%,城乡住宅及商业建筑的其他改造与提升措施13%
电力	● 加大落后燃煤机组的淘汰力度。每年至少退出30000 MW/年● 强化非水可再生电力发展。到2050年通过可再生能源配额制政策使非水可再生能源发电量占比至少达到31.0%● 推动电网储能技术的发展。在基准情景上保守估计每年2%的增长率● 新能源补贴。依照原有标准执行 [风电补贴 60元/(MW·h),光伏发电补贴为200元/(MW·h)]	● 禁止新建燃煤电厂● 加大落后燃煤机组的淘汰力度。每年至少退出30000 MW/年● 强化非水可再生电力发展。到2050年通过可再生能源配额制政策使非水可再生发电量占比至少达到39.0%● 推动电网储能技术的发展。在基准情景上保守估计每年5%的增长率● 新能源补贴退坡。可再生电力已初步具备市场竞争力,因此取消可再生电力的补贴政策
工业	● 加快低效工业设备改造与折旧。到2050年实现低效工业设备改造与折旧的比率至少过半● 提高工业能效标准。各行业平均提升18%● 工业生产中的煤改气。12%的工业用煤改为天然气● 改善工业系统的整体设计。通过优化系统设计效能提升50%	● 加快低效工业设备折旧。到2050年彻底实现低效工业设备的改造与折旧● 提高工业能效标准。水泥26%,油气行业31%,钢铁38%,化学35%,采矿31%,其他工业50%● 工业生产中的煤改气。25%的工业用煤改为天然气● 改善工业系统的整体设计。通过优化系统设计效能翻倍
供热	● 提升热电联产占比。到2050年实现50%● 持续降低燃煤供热占比。到2050年天然气供热比例在基准情景上再减少25%	● 提升热电联产占比。到2050年实现67.5%● 持续降低燃煤供热占比。到2050年天然气供热比例在基准情景上再减少50%

Table 1. Scenario definitions and parameters

Ze HE, Yan-nan ZHOU, Yi LIU. System dynamics simulation on China's energy consumption in 2050: Based on the policy scenarios of key industries[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(11): 2696

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