[1] 陈述彭. 序言[M]//岳天祥.资源环境数学模型手册. 北京: 科学出版社, 2003. [ ChenS P. Preface[M]// Yue T X. Handbook on mathematical models of resources and environment. Beijing: Science Press, 2003. ] [ Chen S P. Preface[M]// Yue T X. Handbook on mathematical models of resources and environment. Beijing: Science Press, 2003. ]
[2] 刘纪远, 岳天祥, 鞠洪波, 等. 中国西部生态系统综合评估[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2006. [ LiuJ Y, YueT X, JuH B, et al.Integrated ecosystem assessment of western China[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2006. ] [ Liu J Y, Yue T X, Ju H B, et al.Integrated ecosystem assessment of western China[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2006. ]
[3] et al[M]. Integrated ecosystem assessment of western China(2005).
[4] [M]. Millennium ecosystem assessment-synthesis report(2005).
[5] The methodological assessment report on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services[M]. Bonn, Germany: Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services(2016).
[6] The year 2000: A framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years[M]. New York: MacMillan(1967).
[7] et alThe Limits to Growth: A report to the club of Rome[M]. New York, USA: Universe Books(1972).
[8] Thinking about tomorrow: Scenarios, social science and global environmental politics[J]. Global Environmental Politics, 9, 1-13(2009).
[9] [M]. Climate change 2001: Synthesis report(2001).
[10] [M]. Climate change 2007 - Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(2007).
[11] Climate Change 2014: Synbook Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC(2014).
[12] Global environment outlook 3[M]. London: EarthScan(2002).
[13] Global environment outlook 4[M]. Nairobi: UNEP(2007).
[14] Global environment outlook 5[M]. Geneva: UNEP(2012).
[15] Water for food, water for life: A comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture[M]. London: Earthscan(2007).
[16] [M]. International assessment of agricultural science and technology development(2009).
[17] et alScenarios in global environmental assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use[J]. Global Environmental Change, 22, 884-895(2012).
[18] et alEcosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe[J]. Science, 310, 1333-1337(2005).
[19] et alMapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: A GIS method to enable ecosystem service modeling[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 92, 563-574(2011).
[20] et alBroad-scale ecosystem services of European wetlands: Overview of the current situation and future perspectives under different climate and water management scenarios[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56, 1501-1517(2011).
[21] Examining the potential impact of land use/cover changes on the ecosystem services of Baguio city, the Philippines: A scenario- based analysis[J]. Applied Geography, 35, 316-326(2012).
[22] et alExperience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 86, 21-32(2014).
[23] et alEcosystem services and economic development in Austrian agricultural landscapes: The impact of policy and climate change scenarios on trade-offs and synergies[J]. Ecological Economics, 109, 161-174(2015).
[24] et alThe consequences of four land-use scenarios for forest ecosystems and the services they provide[J]. Ecosphere, 7(2016).
[25] et alThe importance of uncertainties in scenario analyses: A study on future ecosystem service delivery in Flanders[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 553, 504-518(2016).
[26] Building scenarios for ecosystem services tools: Developing a methodology for efficient engagement with expert stakeholders[J]. Futures, 81, 68-80(2016).
[27] et alUsing ecosystem services mapping for marine spatial planning in southern Chile under scenario assessment[J]. Ecosystem Services, 16, 341-353(2015).
[28] The value of urban ecosystem services in New York City: A spatially explicit multicriteria analysis of landscape scale valuation scenarios[J]. Environmental Science & Policy, 62, 57-68(2016).
[29] 岳天祥. 资源环境数学模型手册[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2003. [ YueT X. Mathematical Model Manual of Resource and Environment[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2003. ] [ Yue T X. Mathematical Model Manual of Resource and Environment[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2003. ]
[30] et alIntegrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0. Model description and policy applications[M]. The Hague, PBL Netherlands: Environmental Assessment Agency(2014).
[31] et alGLOBIO3: A framework to investigate options for reducing global terrestrial biodiversity loss[J]. Ecosystems, 12, 374-390(2009).
[32] et alGEO-BENE global database for bio-physical modeling v.1.0. Concepts, methodologies and data[M]. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, The GEO-BENE database report(2008).
[33] et alModeling the dynamics of the integrated earth system and the value of global ecosystem services using the GUMBO model[J]. Ecological Economics, 41, 529-560(2002).
[34] et alThe Multiscale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services (MIMES): Simulating the interactions of coupled human and natural systems[J]. Ecosystem Services, 12, 30-41(2015).
[35] Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: Comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space[J]. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10, 621-637(2001).
[36] Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: Exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model[J]. Landscape Ecology, 24, 1167-1181(2009).
[37] Ecopath with Ecosim: Methods, capabilities and limitations[J]. Ecological Modelling, 172, 109-139(2004).
[38] Ecopath with Ecosim: A User's Guide[M]. Vancouver, Canada: Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia(2005).
[39] et al[M]. Natural capital: Theory and practice of mapping ecosystem services(2011).
[40] et alA methodology for adaptable and robust ecosystem services assessment[J]. PLoS One, 9, e91001(2014).
[43] et alToolkit for Ecosystem Service Site-based Assessment (TESSA)[M]. Version 1.2. Cambridge, UK(2014).
[44] et alPolyscape: A GIS mapping toolbox providing efficient and spatially explicit landscape-scale valuation of multiple ecosystem services[J]. Urban and Landscape Planning, 112, 74-88(2013).
[45] 傅伯杰, 于丹丹, 吕楠. 中国生物多样性与生态系统服务评估指标体系[J]. 生态学报, 2017,37(2):341-348. [ FuB J, YuD D, LvN. An indicator system for biodiversity and ecosystem services evaluation in China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017,37(2):341-348. ] [ Fu B J,Yu D D,Lv N. An indicator system for biodiversity and ecosystem services evaluation in China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017,37(2):341-348. ]
[46] 于丹丹, 吕楠, 傅伯杰. 生物多样性与生态系统服务评估指标与方法[J]. 生态学报, 2017,37(2):49-357. [ YuD D, LvN, FuB J. Indicator systems and methods for evaluating biodiversity and ecosystem services[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017,37(2):349-357. ] [ Yu D D,Lv N,Fu B J. Indicator systems and methods for evaluating biodiversity and ecosystem services[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017,37(2):349-357. ]
[47] et alBuilding scenarios and models of drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem change. In: The methodological assessment report on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services[M]. Ferrier S, Ninan K N, Leadley P, et al (eds.).Bonn, Germany: Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, 85-117(2016).
[48] Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using a scenario approach and sensitivity analysis: A study for land use in Europe[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 127, S132-S144(2013).
[49] et alIntegrated assessment models for ecologists: The present and the future[J]. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23, 124-143(2014).
[50] Identifying trade-offs between ecosystem services, land use, and biodiversity: A plea for combining scenario analysis and optimization on different spatial scales[J]. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5, 458-463(2013).
[51] et alA review of recent developments in HASM[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 74, 6541-6549(2015).
[52] 岳天祥. 地球表层系统模拟分析原理与方法[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2017. [ YueT X. Theory and methods of terrain surface system[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2017. ] [ Yue T X. Theory and methods of terrain surface system[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2017. ]
