• NUCLEAR TECHNIQUES
  • Vol. 45, Issue 12, 120602 (2022)
Qinmai HOU, Wei ZHU*, Xiang ZOU, Shixian LIU, and Yannong WU
Author Affiliations
  • Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center, Beijing 102445, China
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    DOI: 10.11889/j.0253-3219.2022.hjs.45.120602 Cite this Article
    Qinmai HOU, Wei ZHU, Xiang ZOU, Shixian LIU, Yannong WU. Analysis and prediction of nuclear power plant operation events based on ARIMA-LSTM model[J]. NUCLEAR TECHNIQUES, 2022, 45(12): 120602 Copy Citation Text show less
    Number and trend of operation events from 1991 to 2018
    Fig. 1. Number and trend of operation events from 1991 to 2018
    M-K test results of the number of operation events
    Fig. 2. M-K test results of the number of operation events
    ACF (a) and PACF (b) maps of first order difference
    Fig. 3. ACF (a) and PACF (b) maps of first order difference
    Predicted values of combined model
    Fig. 4. Predicted values of combined model
    ARIMA modelAR1AR2AR3MA1MA2AICR2
    ARIMA (3, 1, 2)1.256 3-0.477 6-0.132 7-1.997 00.998 9243.940.542
    ARIMA (3, 1, 1)0.526 8-0.082 9-0.250 4-1.000 0243.760.475
    ARIMA (2, 1, 2)1.352 7-0.624 0-1.992 60.999 6242.200.504
    ARIMA (2, 1, 1)0.561 1-0.205 0-1.000 0242.530.417
    Table 1. ARIMA model parameter estimation

    年份

    Year

    预测值

    Predicted values

    95%置信区间

    95% CI

    201928.02(-3.843 962, 59.888 68)
    202021.46(-13.263 979, 56.189 37)
    202120.06(-14.526 518, 54.653 04)
    Table 2. Predicted values of operation events from 2019 to 2021
    模型ModelMSERMSEMAPE
    ARIMA234.9215.3236.5%
    ARIMA-LSTM223.9414.9633.6%
    Table 3. Model evaluation parameters
    Qinmai HOU, Wei ZHU, Xiang ZOU, Shixian LIU, Yannong WU. Analysis and prediction of nuclear power plant operation events based on ARIMA-LSTM model[J]. NUCLEAR TECHNIQUES, 2022, 45(12): 120602
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