In this paper, total of 5 170 flue-cured tobacco samples collected from 2003 to 2012 in the domestic and foreign origin by Shanghai Tobacco Group Technical Center were tested by near infrared spectroscopy, including the typical upper leaves 1 394, central 2 550, the lower part of 1 226. Using projection model of based on principal component and Fisher criterion (PPF), follow the projected results to get no statistically significant differences at adjacent principal components, and the number of principal components as little as possible, in this paper, four main components to build projection analysis model, the model results show that: the near-infrared spectral characteristics of the upper and lower leaves have a significant difference that can be achieved almost entirely distinguished;while the middle leaves with upper and lower have a certain degree of overlap, which is consistent to the actual situation of the continuity of tobacco leaf. At the same time, Euclidean distance between the predicted sample projection values and the mean projection values of each class in the model, a description is given for the prediction samples to quantify the extent of the site features, and its first and second close categories. Using the dispersion of projected values in model and the given threshold value, prediction results can be refined into typically upper, upper to central , central to upper, typical central, central to the lower, the lower to central, typically the lower, or super-model range. The model was validated by 34 tobacco samples obtained from the re-drying process in 2012 with different origins and parts. This kind of analysis methods, not only can achieve discriminant analysis, and get richer feature attribute information, can provide guidance on the raw tobacco processing and formulations.