• Journal of Natural Resources
  • Vol. 35, Issue 12, 2875 (2020)
Jun-kai FAN and Jian-gang XU*
Author Affiliations
  • School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
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    DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201205 Cite this Article
    Jun-kai FAN, Jian-gang XU. Vulnerability assessment of urban agglomeration based on neural network model: A case study of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(12): 2875 Copy Citation Text show less
    BP neural network topological structure of urban development vulnerability evaluation
    Fig. 1. BP neural network topological structure of urban development vulnerability evaluation
    Deviation curve of BP neural network
    Fig. 2. Deviation curve of BP neural network
    Urban vulnerability of environmental system
    Fig. 3. Urban vulnerability of environmental system
    Urban vulnerability of economic system
    Fig. 4. Urban vulnerability of economic system
    Urban vulnerability of social system
    Fig. 5. Urban vulnerability of social system
    System urban development vulnerability of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration
    Fig. 6. System urban development vulnerability of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration
    二级指标三级指标单位指标属性
    环境系统X1:工业废气排放强度104 t/km2正向
    X2:人均年供水量t/人负向
    X3:工业废水重复利用率%负向
    X4:工业固体废物综合利用率%负向
    X5:建成区绿化覆盖率%负向
    经济系统X6:外贸依存度%正向
    X7:实际利用外资占GDP比例%正向
    X8:第三产业占GDP比例%负向
    X9:地区GDP增长率%负向
    X10:工业总产值104负向
    X11:固定资产投资强度104元/km2负向
    社会系统X12:人口自然增长率正向
    X13:乡村人口比例%正向
    X14:城镇居民人均可支配收入负向
    X15:农民人均纯收入负向
    X16:第三产业就业人数比例%负向
    X17:公路通车里程km负向
    Table 1. Indicator system of urban development vulnerability evaluation
    年份居民消费价格指数城市居民消费价格指数农村居民消费价格指数固定资产投资价格指数
    2006100.0100.0100.0100.0
    2007105.9105.9105.9104.2
    2008111.9111.6112.3111.9
    2009112.4112.2112.5109.8
    2010116.5116.4116.5112.7
    2011122.3122.0122.2117.9
    2012125.6125.7125.0119.6
    2013129.4130.0128.4120.9
    2014132.6133.3130.9122.1
    2015135.1136.3132.6121.0
    2016137.1138.2134.8121.1
    Table 2. Price index statistics of Yunnan province from 2007 to 2016
    二级指标权重三级指标权重
    环境系统0.3025X1:工业废气排放强度0.0825
    X2:人均年供水量0.0392
    X3:工业废水重复利用率0.1105
    X4:工业固体废物综合利用率0.0408
    X5:建成区绿化覆盖率0.0295
    经济系统0.5247X6:外贸依存度0.1349
    X7:实际利用外资占GDP比例0.1285
    X8:第三产业占GDP比例0.0689
    X9:地区GDP增长率0.0857
    X10:工业总产值0.0410
    X11:固定资产投资强度0.0557
    社会系统0.1728X12:人口自然增长率0.0467
    X13:乡村人口比例0.0372
    X14:城镇居民人均可支配收入0.0187
    X15:农民人均纯收入0.0160
    X16:第三产业就业人数比例0.0218
    X17:公路通车里程0.0323
    Table 3. Indicator weight of urban development vulnerability evaluation
    等级IIIIIIIV
    环境系统X1:工业废气排放强度0.13850.37640.62671.0000
    X2:人均年供水量0.12280.43240.61981.0000
    X3:工业废水重复利用率0.03800.11700.53041.0000
    X4:工业固体废物综合利用率0.24530.55830.75661.0000
    X5:建成区绿化覆盖率0.20900.36520.71031.0000
    经济系统X6:外贸依存度0.07580.19110.60351.0000
    X7:实际利用外资占GDP比例0.05970.18170.62481.0000
    X8:第三产业占GDP比例0.31690.62240.76461.0000
    X9:地区GDP增长率0.14910.37460.61081.0000
    X10:工业总产值0.22290.64110.84301.0000
    X11:固定资产投资强度0.25500.68570.89681.0000
    社会系统X12:人口自然增长率0.29330.56310.73611.0000
    X13:乡村人口比例0.28010.69840.84491.0000
    X14:城镇居民人均可支配收入0.35250.61950.80071.0000
    X15:农民人均纯收入0.25790.55550.79241.0000
    X16:第三产业就业人数比例0.32180.55740.74201.0000
    X17:公路通车里程0.33290.61850.82931.0000
    Table 4. BP neural network evaluation criteria of urban development vulnerability level
    年份昆明曲靖玉溪楚雄红河
    20079.9014.4112.8810.1312.62
    20088.1014.5613.7214.1813.31
    200914.0010.157.6711.958.54
    201011.2811.3410.2013.4711.83
    201112.8314.7013.4713.6514.42
    201216.8312.6811.1015.0312.94
    201310.019.726.917.6210.01
    20146.17-4.534.948.957.18
    20154.883.323.096.116.32
    20166.776.873.859.347.62
    Table 5. GDP growth rate of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration in recent 10 years (%)
    Jun-kai FAN, Jian-gang XU. Vulnerability assessment of urban agglomeration based on neural network model: A case study of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(12): 2875
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