• Journal of Natural Resources
  • Vol. 35, Issue 11, 2585 (2020)
Shou-jun CUI*, Yu CAI, and Mo-qian JIANG
Author Affiliations
  • School of International Relations, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
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    DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201103 Cite this Article
    Shou-jun CUI, Yu CAI, Mo-qian JIANG. Critical technology change and energy geopolitics transition[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(11): 2585 Copy Citation Text show less

    Abstract

    Technology change is the material foundation of energy geopolitics transition. Different from the traditional view that "energy politics is equal to resource politics", this article argues that resource endowment and technology breakthrough are equally important in determining energy geopolitics dynamics. Energy technology can be divided into two categories, namely competence-enhancing technology and competence-destroying technology. For example, shale oil and shale gas extraction technology belongs to the first category and renewable energy technology belongs to the second, while the breakthrough in renewable energy technology will significantly reconstruct global energy structure. Tracing the history of technological transition, the dominant energy resource evolved from wood to coal, to oil and gas and then to renewables. The energy technology innovation cycles are closely intertwined with great powers' geopolitical competition, while major technology shift triggers the upgrade of energy utilization. The technology leading state could always exert its geopolitical advantages in each energy transition process, and the success of challenging state in replacing hegemonic state is always being supported by new energy technology innovation. With the arrival of the fourth industrial revolution, renewable energies, such as wind power, solar power and controllable nuclear fusion will substantively transform and reshape global energy geopolitics. Currently, two geopolitical consequences in new energy transition could be observed. (1) Accessibility and availability to critical elements, especially the rare earth, cobalt and lithium in renewable energy sector, will become the new battle fields of energy geopolitics. (2) Disruptive technology will be the linchpin in leading energy industry upgradation. Global powers such as China, US and EU have set up their roadmaps in promoting renewable energy development. Geopolitical competition among great powers will accelerate the evolution of the present round of energy transition. The progress of new energy technology will substantively affect energy security. On the one hand, the structure of major powers game and the implementation of energy diplomacy will largely differ from the past. On the other hand, the oil and gas related geopolitical conflicts will be largely decreased. In the meanwhile, the cut-off of grids will be a new weapon in global geopolitical game.
    Shou-jun CUI, Yu CAI, Mo-qian JIANG. Critical technology change and energy geopolitics transition[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(11): 2585
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