• Resources Science
  • Vol. 42, Issue 5, 825 (2020)
Xianlei CAO*
Author Affiliations
  • Faculty of International Trade, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China
  • show less
    DOI: 10.18402/resci.2020.05.03 Cite this Article
    Xianlei CAO. Investment timing and option value of afforestation carbon sequestration project under carbon trading mechanism[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(5): 825 Copy Citation Text show less
    Impact of carbon sequestration price volatility on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    Fig. 1. Impact of carbon sequestration price volatility on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    Impact of carbon sequestration transaction cost on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    Fig. 2. Impact of carbon sequestration transaction cost on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    Impact of project filing success rate on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    Fig. 3. Impact of project filing success rate on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    Impact of timber price changes on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    Fig. 4. Impact of timber price changes on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    Impact of labor price on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    Fig. 5. Impact of labor price on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    分类变量内容单位求解方法(取值)
    微观项目参数Vw木材销售的收入与各项投入之差万元/hm2式(4)
    C1项目备案立项阶段的投资额贴现值万元/hm20.01
    C2项目建设与运营阶段的投资额贴现值万元/hm25.43
    θ碳汇实物量参数t式(6)
    T项目计入期限20
    宏观变量参数r风险调整贴现率a%1.03
    δ便利收益(价值漏损率)b%1.02
    σ碳汇价格波动率%34.0(历史数据法)
    ρ项目备案成功率%15.2
    主观参数μ碳价格预期增长率%0.01
    β1中间变量参数式(10)
    Table 1. Classification and descriptive statistics of variables in the model
    分类变量单位分析方法及原因
    碳市场环境碳价波动率%数值模拟分析
    碳汇交易成本万元数值模拟分析
    项目备案成功率%数值模拟分析
    价值漏损率%受碳汇价格、项目价值及投入总成本等因素的影响,不适合单独作数值模拟分析
    风险调整贴现率%受碳汇价格、项目价值及投入总成本等因素的影响,不适合单独作数值模拟分析
    林业生产环境固碳量t受碳汇价格、项目价值及投入总成本等因素的影响,不适合单独作数值模拟分析
    劳动力价格元/工日数值模拟分析
    木材价格元/m3数值模拟分析
    主观参数投资者要求的回报率%由风险调整贴现率和价值漏损率确定,不作数值模拟分析
    Table 2. Classification and analysis methods of variables
    项目单位数量单价/元总金额/元
    营造林成本31920.0
    造林支出9120.0
    清山用工工日/hm222.5140.03150.0
    整地用工工日/hm218.0140.02520.0
    栽植用工工日/hm212.0140.01680.0
    扩穴培土用工工日/hm27.5140.01050.0
    种苗费用株/hm21800.00.4720.0
    前3年抚育总支出(共5次)元/hm222800.0
    除杂抚育用工工日/hm275.0140.010500.0
    施肥抚育用工工日/hm230.0140.04200.0
    间伐抚育支出工日/hm222.5140.03150.0
    化肥费用kg/hm21650.03.04950.0
    林业三防年投入a元/hm2/a1.01500.01500.0
    造林当年基础设施建设元/hm21.01500.01500.0
    木材采运费用m3170.0
    碳汇交易成本b元/hm2/a1.059.559.5
    Table 3. Afforestation costs of slash pine carbon sequestration forests per unit area
    项目阶段投资时机临界阈值/(元/t)投资期权价值/(万元/hm2
    前期规划备案阶段79.230.12
    项目建设阶段57.330.59
    Table 4. Calculation results of the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration afforestation project
    Xianlei CAO. Investment timing and option value of afforestation carbon sequestration project under carbon trading mechanism[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(5): 825
    Download Citation