• Resources Science
  • Vol. 42, Issue 9, 1704 (2020)
Wenli QIANG1, Cuiling ZHANG1, Aimin LIU2、*, Shengkui CHENG2, Xiang WANG1, and Fan LI1
Author Affiliations
  • 1College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • 2Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
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    DOI: 10.18402/resci.2020.09.06 Cite this Article
    Wenli QIANG, Cuiling ZHANG, Aimin LIU, Shengkui CHENG, Xiang WANG, Fan LI. Evolution of global virtual land flow related to agricultural trade and driving factors[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(9): 1704 Copy Citation Text show less
    Land, water resources, and virtual land trade of selected countries, 2016
    Fig. 1. Land, water resources, and virtual land trade of selected countries, 2016
    Trend of change of global virtual land trade, 1986-2016
    Fig. 2. Trend of change of global virtual land trade, 1986-2016
    Virtual land trade volumes of main export/import countries, 1986-2016
    Fig. 3. Virtual land trade volumes of main export/import countries, 1986-2016
    Virtual land flow between different economic groups of countries, 1986-2016
    Fig. 4. Virtual land flow between different economic groups of countries, 1986-2016
    Distance of trade links and the cumulative proportion of their trade, 2016
    Fig. 5. Distance of trade links and the cumulative proportion of their trade, 2016
    农产品类别农产品种类
    谷物小麦、玉米、稻米、小米、大麦、荞麦、高粱、燕麦、黑麦
    油料大豆、油棕榈、花生、向日葵、亚麻籽、油菜籽、芝麻、油橄榄
    纤维皮棉、黄麻、剑麻、苎麻、亚麻
    糖料甘蔗、甜菜
    薯类木薯、马铃薯、甜薯、山药、根和块茎
    果蔬苹果、菠萝、草莓、桃子、西瓜、香蕉、樱桃、梨、芒果、猕猴桃、木瓜、柠檬、葡萄、杏子、牛油果、蓝莓、无花果、橙子、李子、大蒜、洋葱、西红柿、萝卜、西蓝花、黄瓜、茴芹、生姜、卷心菜、辣椒、竹笋、生菜、茄子、豆类
    嗜好类茶叶、咖啡、可可
    畜禽类猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉、牛奶及其制品
    Table 1. Product categories and primary products of global agricultural trade
    变量名称变量选取数据来源预期系数符号
    人均GDP1986—2016年虚拟耕地输入国与输出国人均GDP世界银行(https://data.worldbank.org/)输入国:+ 输出国:-
    人口数量1986—2016年虚拟耕地输入国与输出国人口数量世界银行(https://data.worldbank.org/)输入国:+ 输出国:-
    农用地面积1986—2016年虚拟耕地输入国与输出国农用地面积世界银行(https://data.worldbank.org/)输入国:- 输出国:+
    可更新淡水资源量1986—2016年虚拟耕地输入国与输出国人均可更新淡水资源量世界银行(https://data.worldbank.org/)输入国:- 输出国:+
    国家距离输入国与输出国首都(首府)间距离法国CEPII 数据库(http://www.cepii.fr/)-
    相邻关系输入国与输出国是否相邻法国CEPII 数据库(http://www.cepii.fr/)+
    贸易协定输入国与输出国是否加入同一区域贸易协定法国CEPII 数据库(http://www.cepii.fr/)+
    Table 2. Variables and the expected direction of trade
    变量模型(1)模型(2)模型(3)
    出口国人均GDP(Gdp_e0.403***0.329***0.277***
    (0.0103)(0.00894)(0.00938)
    进口国人均GDP(Gdp_i0.362***0.342***0.372***
    (0.00806)(0.00713)(0.00719)
    出口国人口数量(Pop_e0.623***0.102***0.158***
    (0.00789)(0.00957)(0.0110)
    进口国人口数量(Pop_i0.635***0.839***0.788***
    (0.00941)(0.0114)(0.0121)
    出口国农用地面积(Land_e0.606***0.573***
    (0.00802)(0.00873)
    进口国农用地面积(Land_i)-0.169***-0.112***
    (0.00568)(0.00743)
    出口国人均可更新淡水资源量(Water_e0.165***
    (0.00806)
    进口国人均可更新淡水资源量(Water_i-0.138***
    (0.00640)
    地理距离(Dis-0.227***-0.479***-0.506***
    (0.0167)(0.0151)(0.0150)
    是否相邻(Conti1.024***0.613***0.580***
    (0.0373)(0.0365)(0.0386)
    是否签订贸易协定(RTA0.283***0.370***0.440***
    (0.0301)(0.0285)(0.0289)
    常数项(Constant-23.55***-20.59***-20.88***
    (0.421)(0.382)(0.404)
    样本数(Observations216491211908202212
    R20.2150.3120.324
    Table 3. Results of gravity regression for the whole sample
    Wenli QIANG, Cuiling ZHANG, Aimin LIU, Shengkui CHENG, Xiang WANG, Fan LI. Evolution of global virtual land flow related to agricultural trade and driving factors[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(9): 1704
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