Influence of human factors on emergency evacuation efficiency of nuclear power plant accident

Fei LUAN; Chunhua CHEN; Fang RUAN; Yuan CHENG; Jingxian ZHU; Jianye WANG

doi:10.11889/j.1000-3436.2022-0128

Journals >Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing >Volume 41 >Issue 4 >Page 040602 > Article

Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing
Vol. 41, Issue 4, 040602 (2023)

Influence of human factors on emergency evacuation efficiency of nuclear power plant accident

Fei LUAN^1,2, Chunhua CHEN^1,*, Fang RUAN^1,2, Yuan CHENG^1,2..., Jingxian ZHU¹ and Jianye WANG¹|Show fewer author(s)

Author Affiliations

¹Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China

²University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China

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DOI: 10.11889/j.1000-3436.2022-0128 Cite this Article

Fei LUAN, Chunhua CHEN, Fang RUAN, Yuan CHENG, Jingxian ZHU, Jianye WANG. Influence of human factors on emergency evacuation efficiency of nuclear power plant accident[J]. Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing, 2023, 41(4): 040602 Copy Citation Text

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Fig. 1. Verification flow chart of nuclear emergency evacuation prediction model

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Fig. 2. Logistic regression model building flow chart

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Fig. 3. Flow chart of multiple Logistic regression model building

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Fig. 4. Partial evacuation roadmap

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Fig. 5. Wind roses over Dapeng Peninsula

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变量	变量名	赋值情况
Variable	Name of variable	Case of assignment
年龄/岁 Age	X₁	18~25=0; 26~35=1; 36~55=2; >55=3
性别 Gender	X₂	男=0；女=1 Male=0; Female=1
职业 Professional	X₃	学生=0；技术人员=1；服务业人员=2；生产运输人员=3；其他=4 Students=0; Technical personnel=1; Service workers=2; Transportation personnel=3; Other=4
学历 Education	X₄	专科=0；本科=1；研究生=2；其他=3 Specialized subject=0; Undergraduate course=1; Graduate student=2; Other=3
是否购买过核安全相关保险 Has purchased nuclear safety related insurance	X₅	买过=0；没买过=1 Bought=0; Didn't buy it=1
参加过的核应急疏散演习次数/次 Number of nuclear emergency evacuation drills participated	X₆	0=0; 1=1; 2=2; >3=3
对核应急疏散的了解情况 Knowledge of nuclear emergency evacuation	X₇	不了解=0；有一定了解=1；基本了解=2；Out of touch=0; Have some understanding=1; Basic understanding=2
家中有无核应急防护措施 The home has non-nuclear emergency protection measures	X₈	没有=0；有=1 No=0; Yes=1
知晓周围辐射避难所数量/个 Know the number of radiation shelters around	X₉	0=0; 1=1; 2=2; >3=3

Table 1. Chi-square test and Logistic regression model of independent variable assignment

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变量

变量名

赋值情况

Variable

Name of

variable

Case of assignment

是否给政府提供核疏散意见

Whether to provide the government with nuclear evacuation advice

Y₁

会=0；不会=1

Yes=0; No=1

听到核事故疏散警报后反应

Reaction after hearing evacuation warning of nuclear accident

Y₂

立即撤退=0；等待救援=1

Get out at once=0; Waiting for rescue=1

核应急疏散中发生拥挤选择

Crowded options occur in nuclear emergency evacuation

Y₃

排队等待=0；寻找其他通道=1

Wait in line=0; Find another way=1

倾向的辐射避难所选择

Preference for radiation shelter selection

Y₄

露天避难所=0；封闭避难所=1

Open shelter=0; Closed shelter=1

核事故疏散路线选择

Nuclear accident evacuation route selection

Y₅

指示疏散路线=0；随机疏散路线=1

Indicated evacuation route=0; Random evacuation route=1

认为核应急疏散所需的时间 / h

The time considered necessary for a nuclear emergency evacuation

Y₆

<1=0; 1~5=1; 6~12=2; >24=3

对周围核设施是否有足够信任

Have enough trust in the surrounding nuclear facilities

Y₇

有=0；没有=1

Yes=0; No=1

Table 2. Dependent variable assignment in Chi-square test and Logistic regression model

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自变量 Independent variable	因变量 Dependent variable
自变量 Independent variable	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃	Y₄	Y₅	Y₆	Y₇
X₁	0.450	0.965	0.450	0.119	0.850	0.333	<0.01
X₂	0.927	0.841	0.902	<0.01	0.332	0.844	0.282
X₃	0.787	0.086	0.963	0.098	0.594	0.286	0.566
X₄	0.181	0.387	0.612	0.472	0.068	0.441	0.160
X₅	<0.01	0.054	0.077	0.121	0.311	0.252	0.028
X₆	<0.01	0.200	0.110	0.020	0.265	0.650	0.127
X₇	<0.01	0.443	0.040	0.032	0.434	<0.01	0.087
X₈	<0.01	0.150	<0.01	0.121	0.756	0.669	0.067
X₉	<0.01	0.350	0.626	0.367	0.743	0.464	0.082

Table 3. Pearson chi-square test significance P-value results (single factor)

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自变量 Independent variable	因变量Dependent variable
自变量 Independent variable	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃	Y₄	Y₅	Y₇
X₁	–	–	–	–	–	1.395
X₂	–	–	–	-1.110	–	–
X₃	–	–	–	-	–	–
X₄	–	–	–	-	–	–
X₅	2.519	–	–	-	–	0.858
X₆	-0.855	–	–	-1.480	–	–
X₇	-1.522	–	-1.104	-0.787	–	–
X₈	-2.191	–	-0.831	–	–	–
X₉	-0.797	–	–	–	–	–
常量 Constant	3.233	–	1.969	0.979	–	-2.701

Table 4. Regression coefficient analysis results in binary Logistic regression model

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个人预估疏散时间Y₆ Personal estimate of evacuation time	对当地疏散的了解情况X₇ Knowledge of local evacuations	显著性P Significance	回归系数B Coefficient of regression	OR
1~5 h之间 Between 1 and 5 hours	X₇= 0	0.004	-1.962	0.141
	X₇= 1	0.032	-1.400	0.247
	X₇= 2
6~12 h之间 Between 6 and 12 hours	X₇= 0	0.011	-2.185	0.113
	X₇= 1	0.011	-2.015	0.133
	X₇= 2
1 d以上 More than one day	X₇= 0	0.220	-1.674	0.188
	X₇= 1	0.059	-2.890	0.056
	X₇= 2

Table 5. Table of the significant influence of different variables on Y₆

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公交车路线 Bus route	路线长度 / km Length of route	路线参数 Parameter of route
滨海花园—家家乐百货附近小区 Binhai Garden — the neighborhood near the department store	27.0	U_s= 50、a₁ = 1.4、a₂= 1.88、a₃= 6.97
	15.1	U_s= 50、a₁ = 1.4、a₂= 1.88、a₃= 6.97
	16.0	U_s=50、a₁= 1.4、a₂= 1.88、a₃= 6.97
私家车路线 Private car route	路线长度 / km Length of route	路线参数 Parameter of route
滨海花园—家家乐百货附近小区 Binhai Garden — the neighborhood near the department store	15.4	U_s= 80、a₁= 0.95、a₂= 1.88、a₃= 6.97
	15.4	U_s=80、a₁= 0.95、a₂= 1.88、a₃= 6.97
	18.5	U_s=80、a₁= 0.95、a₂= 1.88、a₃=6.97

Table 6. Evacuation route parameters for private and public vehicles

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天气条件 Weather conditions	交通容量减弱因子 / % Traffic capacity attenuation factor	速度减弱因子 / % Velocity weakening factor
正常 Normal	100	100
不利—大雨 Negative— Heavy rain	90	50
不利—大雪或结冰 Negative— Heavy snow or ice	85	50
不利—大雾 Negative — Fog	75	50