The kill probability of air-to-ground missile against complex targets needs to be researched systematically, and it is an urgently needed project to evaluate the kill probability in missile shooting test.A method for kill probability evaluation was proposed by taking air-to-ground missile against air defense radar vehicle as an example.The model for evaluating the kill probability was constructed based on the following five aspects:target vulnerability, power of warhead, model of the target, models of explosion point and fragment flying, and the comprehensive kill probability.The impact of CEP on kill probability was analyzed through Monte Carlo simulation.The result shows that the kill probabilities of fragmentation and the shock wave, and the comprehensive kill probability, are all closely relative to the changing of CEP.