Climate change and future trends in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China: The comprehensive analysis with the historical observation and the model simulation

Zi-hang FANG; Chun-yang HE; Zhi-feng LIU; Yuan-yuan ZHAO; Yan-jie YANG

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20200209

Journals >Journal of Natural Resources >Volume 35 >Issue 2 >Page 358 > Article

Journal of Natural Resources
Vol. 35, Issue 2, 358 (2020)

Climate change and future trends in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China: The comprehensive analysis with the historical observation and the model simulation

Zi-hang FANG^1、2, Chun-yang HE^1、2、*, Zhi-feng LIU^1、2, Yuan-yuan ZHAO³, and Yan-jie YANG^1、2

Author Affiliations

¹Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

²School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

³School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

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DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20200209 Cite this Article

Zi-hang FANG, Chun-yang HE, Zhi-feng LIU, Yuan-yuan ZHAO, Yan-jie YANG. Climate change and future trends in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China: The comprehensive analysis with the historical observation and the model simulation[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(2): 358 Copy Citation Text

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Fig. 1. Map showing the study area

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Fig. 2. Flow chart

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Fig. 3. The regional climate change from 1971 to 2015

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Fig. 4. The climate change in each climatic area from 1971 to 2015

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Fig. 5. The change of regional mean annual temperature from 2006 to 2050 under different RCPs

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Fig. 6. The change of regional mean annual precipitation from 2006 to 2050 under different RCPs

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Fig. 7. The comparison of results from different climate models

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Fig. 8. The comparison of climate change under different RCPs

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模式类型	模式名称	国家	研究机构	空间分辨率/(°)	参考文献
全球气候模式	BNU	中国	北京师范大学	2.8125×2.8125	吴其重等^[22]
	CanESM 2	加拿大	CCCma	2.8125×2.8125	Chylek等^[23]
	CCSM 4	美国	NCAR	0.9375×1.25	Peacock^[24]
	IPSL-CM5A-LR	法国	IPSL	1.875×3.75	Dufresne等^[25]
	MPI-ESM-LR	德国	MPI	1.875×1.875	Stevens等^[26]
	MRI-CGCM3	日本	MRI	1.125×1.125	Yukimoto等^[27]
	NorESM1-M	挪威	NCC	1.875×2.5	Bentsen等^[28]
区域气候模式	RegCM 4.0	中国	国家气候中心	1×1	Giorgi等^[29]

Table 1. The information about global climate model and regional climate model

排放情景	气候分区	变化趋势值
		气温/(℃/10 a)		降水/(mm/10 a)
		GCM	RCM	GCM	RCM
RCP 2.6	西部区	0.23^*	0.28^*	6.70	-11.20^*
	中西部区	0.28^*	0.20^*	3.02	3.58
	中东部区	0.32^*	0.21^*	5.08	-4.27
	东部区	0.31^*	0.20^*	8.81^*	2.70
RCP 4.5	西部区	0.36^*	0.26^*	5.75	13.86^*
	中西部区	0.39^*	0.33^*	6.47	6.82^*
	中东部区	0.39^*	0.29^*	15.44^*	21.80^*
	东部区	0.37^*	0.28^*	16.12^*	19.12^*
RCP 8.5	西部区	0.50^*	0.52^*	13.10^*	21.64^*
	中西部区	0.49^*	0.45^*	18.03^*	17.36^*
	中东部区	0.48^*	0.43^*	12.10^*	15.71^*
	东部区	0.42^*	0.46^*	11.35^*	10.64^*

Table 2. The regional climate change from 2006 to 2050

模式	多年平均气温/℃	气温变化速率/(℃/10 a)	多年平均降水量/mm	降水变化速率/(mm/10 a)
BNU	6.73	0.36^*	1143.08	-10.35
CanESM 2	8.71	0.47^*	886.30	38.84^*
CCSM 4	5.91	0.33^*	766.64	9.38^*
IPSL-CM5A-LR	3.66	0.45^*	705.27	15.65^*
MPI-ESM-LR	7.96	0.32^*	864.82	-2.30
MRI-CGCM 3	5.16	0.30^*	415.91	15.03^*
NorESM1-M	4.34	0.40^*	810.67	17.88^*

Table 3. The comparison of seven global climate models

模式	温度		降水
模式	Slope/(℃/10 a)	R²	Slope/(mm/10 a)	R²
BNU	0.43	0.20	12.06	0.01
CanESM2	0.38	0.24	-5.78	0.002
CCSM4	0.20	0.16	7.37	0.03
IPSL-CM5A-LR	0.39	0.22	5.32	0.01
MPI-ESM-LR	0.25	0.17	-16.83	0.06
MRI-CGCM3	0.20	0.06	-12.49	0.002
NorESM1-M	0.37	0.41	4.35	0.03
多模式平均值	0.32	0.48	-0.86	0.06

Table 4. The reliability assessment of global climate models

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