Spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of environmental stress in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: A county-level analysis

Kan ZHOU; Hui LI; Yuming SHEN

doi:10.11821/dlxb202009009

Journals >Acta Geographica Sinica >Volume 75 >Issue 9 >Page 1934 > Article

Acta Geographica Sinica
Vol. 75, Issue 9, 1934 (2020)

Spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of environmental stress in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: A county-level analysis

Kan ZHOU¹, Hui LI², and Yuming SHEN^2、*

Author Affiliations

¹Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

²College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China

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DOI: 10.11821/dlxb202009009 Cite this Article

Kan ZHOU, Hui LI, Yuming SHEN. Spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of environmental stress in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: A county-level analysis[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1934 Copy Citation Text

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Fig. 1. Location of the study area and distribution of its major functional zones

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Fig. 2. ESI and its spatial changes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2012 and 2016

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Fig. 3. Spatial changes of ESI in cold and hot spots in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2012 and 2016

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Fig. 4. The ESI of major functional zones in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2012 and 2016

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Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of regression coefficients in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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地区	2012年					2016年
地区	化学需氧量(t)	氨氮(t)	二氧化硫(t)	氮氧化物(t)	环境胁迫指数	化学需氧量(t)	氨氮(t)	二氧化硫(t)	氮氧化物(t)	环境胁迫指数
北京市	16954.62	1862.13	8531.76	8876.63	0.10	7917.70	506.92	3019.09	3191.49	0.04
天津市	32776.27	3630.82	32074.49	40024.72	0.28	14753.91	2235.31	10087.73	13820.09	0.12
河北省	9933.54	814.72	9871.90	8921.88	0.07	3023.46	451.93	5804.73	4786.54	0.03
京津冀地区	11473.35	1017.54	10785.39	10332.41	0.08	3906.25	536.92	5800.44	5083.22	0.04

Table 1. Emission intensity and ESI in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2012 and 2016

项目	2012年			2016年
项目	Moran's I	z值	p值	Moran's I	z值	p值
化学需氧量排放量	0.1666	3.6114	0.0003	0.1309	2.9777	0.0029
氨氮排放量	0.1592	3.6328	0.0003	0.1933	4.4142	0.0000
二氧化硫排放量	0.2186	4.8671	0.0000	0.1865	4.1760	0.0000
氮氧化物排放量	0.1847	4.0896	0.0000	0.2720	5.9211	0.0000
环境胁迫指数	0.2014	4.3945	0.0000	0.2325	5.0628	0.0000

Table 2. Moran's I of ESI and major pollutants in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

变量	2012年					2016年
变量	系数	标准差	T统计量	p值	VIF	系数	标准差	T统计量	p值	VIF
截距	-0.1521^**	0.0200	-7.5971	0.0000	—	-0.1939^**	0.0232	-8.3752	0.0000	—
TP	0.8183^**	0.0691	11.8378	0.0000	1.9735	0.6341^**	0.0764	8.2948	0.0000	2.0188
PGDP	0.7390^**	0.0684	10.8029	0.0000	1.4166	0.6220^**	0.0764	8.1423	0.0000	1.3983
IS	0.0413	0.0277	1.4900	0.1062	1.1709	0.0763^*	0.0324	2.3520	0.0034	1.2015
TDI	-0.1650^**	0.0498	-3.3139	0.0044	2.4017	-0.1347^**	0.0543	-2.4799	0.0131	2.3414
ETT	0.3260^**	0.0351	9.2818	0.0000	1.0524	0.3028^**	0.0319	9.4878	0.0000	1.0906
UR	0.2135^**	0.0346	6.1780	0.0001	2.0578	0.2630^**	0.0378	6.9495	0.0001	2.0217
IAP	0.2802^**	0.0326	8.5851	0.0002	1.0872	0.2515^**	0.0349	7.1992	0.0007	1.1159
模型诊断	卡方统计量	校正R²	AIC	Koenker (BP)检验	Jarque-Bera检验	卡方统计量	校正R²	AIC	Koenker (BP)检验	Jarque-Bera检验
模型诊断	1277.1215	0.8469	-411.5215	33.50139^**	3816.7202^**	996.9724	0.7847	-376.3448	31.2104^**	3411.6170^**

Table 3. Estimation results of OLS Model in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

变量	2012年						2016年
变量	最小值	最大值	平均值	上四分位数	中位数	下四分位数	最小值	最大值	平均值	上四分位数	中位数	下四分位数
截距	-0.407	-0.035	-0.137	-0.170	-0.094	-0.073	-0.399	-0.084	-0.169	-0.197	-0.146	-0.122
TP	0.658	2.896	1.307	0.798	1.083	1.655	0.420	2.985	1.055	0.571	0.867	1.306
PGDP	-1.277	2.071	0.973	0.704	0.749	1.540	0.020	3.405	0.868	0.554	0.607	0.936
IS	-0.052	0.244	0.032	-0.020	0.007	0.060	-0.040	0.345	0.071	0.026	0.047	0.094
TDI	-1.110	0.052	-0.145	-0.144	-0.095	-0.058	-0.377	0.088	-0.074	-0.107	-0.062	-0.022
ETT	0.150	0.621	0.327	0.210	0.293	0.429	0.171	0.486	0.275	0.227	0.252	0.302
UR	-0.004	0.459	0.136	0.076	0.097	0.165	0.004	0.352	0.157	0.110	0.144	0.197
IAP	-0.165	0.918	0.202	0.014	0.161	0.395	-0.119	0.544	0.182	0.028	0.161	0.301
模型诊断	带宽		校正R²		AICc		带宽		校正R²		AICc
模型诊断	99877.656		0.948		-527.574		105540.116		0.900		-454.605

Table 4. Estimation results of GWR Model in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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