The infrared emissivity of low emissivity coating can be significantly reduced by adding high content concentrations of parallel distributed metallic flake pigment. However, the infrared emissivity is very difficult to calculate by the existing theory models, such as the light scattering theory and traditional Kubelka-Munk radiative transfer model, because of shape and distribution anisotropy of flake pigments. Thus, the low emissivity coating is assumed to be the superposition structure of homogeneous layers and metallic flakes are approximately uniform and parallel arrangement in each layer. Based on geometric optics theory and Kubelka's layer model, considering multiple reflection, transmission and absorption of infrared radiation among different layers, the theoretical model is established to calculate the coating emissivity. The facts of binder, pigment concentration and thickness are also systematic discussed. The result shows that the law of influence on infrared emissivity can be correctly simulated by this theoretical model. Transparent binder, high volume concentration of thin flake pigment can facilitate to reduce infrared emissivity. Moreover, this model offers the possibility of predicting the infrared optical properties of coatings by their optical constants.